As of now we are in a world where winning is what counts not how you play the game. Cricket analogies are redundant. Power is might and so power is right. This is the Trump, and so the American philosophy, of the day and it chimes with the creeds of Putin and XI. It is therefore bound to hold sway. It is clear that, as long as Trump holds sway, and probably for the foreseeable future, it has to be assumed that the USA is not to be relied upon for the defence of the West. Sadly, certainly as long as Trump reigns, USA promises must be seen as reversible whenever Trump sees fit.
Liberals, progressives, elitists and academics, and human rights activists, can bemoan that everybody’s rights must be respected; but arguably a right only exists when there is somebody to enforce and protect it. There should be no surprise, since, after all, perhaps until the aftermath of World War 2, the world order had surely been established and international relations dictated by the nations which had the hard power, the military and economic might, to impose their will when push came to shove. Do we not now need democratic nations which are militarily strong, economically strong and dedicated to upholding good values? That will require nations such as France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK, all economic second tier power houses, urgently to establish themselves as military nations, not mega powers but powerhouses, once more. But the UK is stuck in the starting blocks in the new arms race.
UK MUSCLE ATROPHY TO BE REVERSED
All of those countries have enjoyed and value freedoms which other nations do not, but defence of those freedoms comes at a price. Some may argue that it is time the UK faced reality, that it has become so weak militarily and so beholden to others that it should accept that fact and focus internally, not aspiring to be on the world stage. The same people may suggest that to desire renewed military power is simply to hark back to days of Empire, a waste of time and energy. That approach could easily lead to an erosion of the democratic freedoms which we take for granted, and a level of subjugation which is unacceptable.
If for protection we continue to depend on American goodwill and, equally as important, American equipment and technology, the UK will be a satellite state of a USA whose President believes his office entitles him “to do as he wants”. The Prime Minister talks today of sending forces to Ukraine as part of a peace keeping force, but the capability he can send is paltry as all experts assert. Even with French supplement, it remains no deterrent. And now he talks of forces going to defend the Arctic in the wake of the Trump desire to own Greenland, ostensibly for security reasons but perhaps most likely for access to rare earths and commercial gain. Without the UK really and immediately making massive commitments now to revitalise its defences and power which have under various Governments been denuded, all these ministerial utterings are puffery. As it stands, Putin with impunity is attacking UK and European infrastructure and sails his shadow oil fleet unhindered. The only deterrent he will understand and respect is military power: the UK and Europe are economically far stronger than Putin but so far lack the will and power to challenge him.
At home, the UK also faces internal threats which are defeating its police and security services which they seem resigned to. The main one is Islamic extremism and terrorism, but grooming and other gangs, British or Albanian or Rumanian or Asia, to name just a few, act without fear. Does not the UK need to seriously beef up its internal security and not countenance any individuals, whatever their colour or creed, who seek to destroy democracy or spread terror? This is not about 20,000 more constables but a two-pronged enforcement approach. First vastly greater physical power and law enforcement against preachers and activists, political or religiousor criminal, who promote or conduct violence or hatred such as antisemitism; and, second, in defending through the media and culturally the freedoms all enjoy equally in this country. That will justify prioritising defence against internal and external enemies.
Today, despite the lie by Ministers that defence is the first priority, the army it is said can perhaps mobilise at any one time perhaps 20,000 soldiers actively. It has little drone capacity. Weapon stocks are seriously depleted due to Ukrainian needs. The UK navy has some 63 vessels, of which some 16 are serious warships and 10 submarines. But only a few of these vessels can be deployed at any one time due to crew shortages or support ship weaknesses. The RAF has aircraft but maintenance and pilot shortages limit deployment capacity. Crucially experts say the UK is unable to defend its cities or infrastructure for lack of sufficient defensive missile or other systems: in the event of conflict, UK core targets like power stations are vulnerable. UK muscle needs urgent rebuilding.
URGENT CHANGE
Only an urgent change in spending and recruitment priorities, and defence procurement will improve things materially: but this Government has even delayed its strategic review until March 2026 and Treasury accountants diminish UK security. No new resources are available to the armed forces. The Prime Minister is not committing any budget and little meaningful rollout of military power is due in this Parliament, which ends in 2029. Does not security of the nation have to take priority over all other spending? Or are our Ministers such cowards that they prefer to shut their eyes and hope Trump remains our saviour militarily and that Putin decides to ditch his European Empire plans, and so Government leaves the problem for the next incumbents. Such Ministers are betraying their country with their feeble lies. Ukraine has no chance if the UK and Europe do not step up to the plate this year and in 2027.
Without mighty raw military power, the UK and Europe are unfit for the real world being carved up by Trump, XI and Putin.
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