THE EU-UK DEBATE – A PANDORA’S BOX OF POISON

⏱ 7 min read

The PM, Andy Burnham, has lit the touchpaper on the deadly Pandora’s Box that is the debate about the relationship of the UK with the EU and whether the UK should rejoin. If ever there was a topic to divide the UK and distract from the huge challenges facing the UK at a time when unity of political and economic purpose across the country is crucial, this is it. That unity is crucial because pulling together is not only necessary to generate economic growth and pay our debts but also to defeat a multitude of threats which are bearing down to disrupt and maybe destroy the UK as an influential democracy. Russia poses a special threat to Europe as a whole and the UK specifically, and China and Iran are serious disruptors, while the reliability of Trump’s USA has become seriously questionable.

The PM has declared he has a duty to improve relations with the EU. Given the EU is our closest neighbour and biggest potential trading partner, of course it is common sense that we should have as good a relationship with them as possible and one would imagine, given our mutual security interests, mutual most favoured nation status. But for the short term and perhaps a lot longer, for security, energy and technology, the relationship with the USA is perhaps more fundamental.

IS REJOINING THE EU ESSENTIAL TO GROW?

Advocates of EU membership cite various negative numbers about how the UK economy would be so much bigger had we remained in the EU. Others cite how notable it is that in most years of this decade the UK, while its growth has been fairly miserable compared to the USA, has outperformed the Eurozone and especially Germany, Italy and many others, roughly on a par with France; and it is forecast by some to be the best immediate performer in the G7 excluding the USA. And yet today France is in complete chaos. And all that while the UK is outside the EU. Surely most of us remember how wrong were the negative forecasts made by those who favoured Remaining in 2016, and how the predictions by those advocating Leave also have proved wrong. Especially given the pandemic and world turmoil since in global trade and stupid wars started by stupid and perhaps evil leaders, it is hard to say with any confidence what might have been had the UK stayed in the EU. And both the hardships and benefits due to Brexit are unquantifiable. 

In addition, what the future may hold is now impossible to predict, as Europe is in riotous chaos, bond markets globally are unstable and the warmongers are in charge. But so-called experts, from the IMF to think tanks, will make predictions, and because they will all make different assumptions to suit their particular agendas, those predictions will all be flawed. Trump alone is a wild card of madness creating instability and unpredictability. Putin is a deadly threat. The Middle and near East are chaotic. To argue now about the merits of rejoining the EU or staying independent is impossible with any degree of reliable information on the effect on global stability, let alone growth or security. It will be a disrupters’ paradise.

RESETTING THE EU RELATIONSHIP

It was announced with much fanfare in the Summer of 2025 that the EU and the UK had agreed in principle a few issues for reset. These are still, nearly 18 months on, being negotiated. At one point the EU said it would not agree anything unless the UK first agreed an acceptable arrangement on the costs of EU students coming to UK Universities, wanting a special deal much cheaper than the normal £30k plus per year. That issue is still up for grabs: but this point illustrates again the tactical trap which PM Theresa May fell into which was the EU demanding key concessions before even negotiating. Will the UK fall for that again? Perhaps, if it comes to the table as a supplicant.

This resetting if successful could lead to the UK giving up its world leading position in genetic modification of crops, as the EU has rules to stop that. The UK has a massive potential in AI according to many reports, but the EU is languishing behind, arguably over regulating: will that suffer, as PM Burnham is reported to want to align with the EU to benefit from its AI financial scheme? And the EU is becoming more protectionist to give “made in the EU” special preference. Security and defence is also a key issue.

The difficulty in getting a reset on just a few narrow areas illustrates how hard and all-consuming a rejoin debate and negotiation could become. If it seems the UK is setting a course to rejoin, then presumably the idea of open borders returns and the UK must join the Euro. Of course, the EU may take a simple stance requiring the UK to re-enter with no special rights. This is a time when listening and discussing and respectful debate are needed to get the UK moving: the whole EU Brexit polarised that approach and is bound to do so again if reopened. If the next election Labour manifesto includes the idea of a REJOIN, will there be a referendum? Not according to Emily Thornberry of Labour. But how could a UK voter decide without the terms of rejoining? And one suspects the EU will not begin a negotiation unless it is clear the UK Government can implement an agreement. Already EU officials are saying that any discussions about rejoining will be difficult. This process could last years with protagonists at each other’s throats throughout. Madness.

UK MUST FOCUS ON WHAT IT CAN CONTROL

There are so many other issues needing urgent resolution to improve the UK and make it safer and they will take several years to be cured. Those issues will not be solved by joining the EU. And so the EU rejoin debate should be scotched now. Getting UK people back to work, getting UK energy prices to a sensible not destructive level are fundamental needs. The Chancellor, John Healey, says he must help businesses succeed and must do so but has done nothing significant yet. The UK must exploit its strengths such as in high tech and innovation and must build its military capabilities. The debate about Europe will add nothing to achieve these things. That debate will be like a poison seeping through the UK’s veins and disinformation will be rife. Reading the Observer newspaper, the campaign has already begun. Voices like William Hague discourage the disruption the debate will cause. But, for example, Tony Blair, who some months ago urged not considering to open up Brexit, is now reported to encourage rejoining. 

The UK should focus on what it can control, and an EU joining is not that. We should solve other problems first. But there is a question whether this PM, Andy Burnham, is using this topic to cause disarray in UK politics. By whetting the appetite of those who are ardent EU supporters, is he simply seeking to harvest votes, and achieve re-election so he can deliver his real agenda of Big State socialism, whether or not he can get a deal with the EU. 

The debate about the UK joining the EU is a poisonous Pandora’s box which could stultify this country and ensure its division and enmity among citizens for years to come. This would be manna from heaven for enemies of the UK who are lining up and actively already testing our defences, physically and virtually.