Hospitality businesses across the Middle East awaited, with both hope and trepidation, the results of the American midterm elections. From waiters to CEOs the Democrat victories were greeted with celebration across hotels and other tourist dependent locations just as they were in Democrat circles in the USA itself. Their hope is a peaceful region. Similarly, across the world in a number of countries people with respect for decency and freedom, obviously excluding the autocratic dictator class such as Putin, perhaps see some hope that Trump’s ego driven bullying and immoral tendencies will be constrained for the next two years. Is this a new dawn?
THE TRUMP REACTION
Any objective commentary interpreted the Republicans’ defeat as a disapproval of the Trump government and its impact on the USA. Some say the cost of living and corruption drove the voters’ agenda, with the war against Iran a major negative as it has caused directly and indirectly the rise in a number of prices, especially for energy as Iran shut the Straits of Hormuz. However, whether that will be relieved by some new accord between the USA, Israel and Iran following these elections remains to be seen. It depends strongly on how Trump reacts. While Trump may intellectually accept the war had a negative impact, he says he is still a winner, and the elections were lost by his weak Republican candidates, not because of himself or his decisions.
With 2 years still to run for the Trump tenure, the big question is how he will behave. He and his executive have substantial control over foreign affairs: if he truly believes he must stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon, a correct and essential objective, can he do a deal with Iran? Will he allow Iran to be the ruling nation in the region, with it sworn to genocide of Israel, and a threat to all others? Will he seek to divide the world into Western Trump, European Putin and Eastern Xi slices? If he still wants a peace prize, will he throw Ukraine under a bus and do a commercial deal with Putin? Or will he realise he is not worthy of that prize, unlikely? And will he veto any Democrat plans which do not fit his vision of his legacy? Will he seek revenge on the Democrats for spoiling the Trump show and throw tantrums?
He seems in thrall to the tech billionaires or will he ditch them as they will be under pressure from many sides? Of course, they may ditch him. Is it possible, if he sees the next 2 years as not his to command, that he would reject the democratic result and even relinquish the Presidency? So that he can pursue his life of profit, once he has a deal with Putin and others to make more money, dissociating himself from “the losers”. A Fantasy perhaps.
And then his team. J D Vance seemed to distance himself when blaming the Iran war for the election debacle, and he is known to have not been in favour of the war. Will he and others stay aboard a Trump ship if they see it has lost popular support and could come under hostile fire from many sides? And will Republican members of Congress finally find some spirit and morality and cease being fawning lapdogs to Trump? At least one Republican Senator has publicly been seen on British TV recounting the task ahead as one to cooperate with the Democrats and find common ground to serve the American people: hopefully authentic words.
Will the world be a better place? Despite the weakening of Trump’s position, depending how he and his acolytes behave, the world may not be much better off.
AND WHAT WILL DEMOCRATS DO?
The Democrats are leaderless and without a united front and business agenda. The new members of Congress include extreme socialists, as well as centrists. Some seem to want to reset the relationship with Israel, but will they desert them as they remain threatened by Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah at least? Voters seem to distrust the AI super rich, especially suspicious of data centres, with a not in my backyard approach. But tech is at the heart of the US economy. Will Democrats rein in the seemingly uncontrollable super powerful tech bosses? And would Trump go along with that? Perhaps Democrats will be mistaken if they think the voters are endorsing wildly anti-capitalist policies by rejecting Republicans: was their vote in fact an “anything but Trump” vote, rather like in the UK the Labour party were elected largely due to an “anything but the Tories” vote. In the UK this has resulted in a PM and Government which is moribund and anti-business despite words to the contrary.
Democrats threaten impeachment of Trump and friends, echoing the anti-corruption vote. But that will not improve the cost of living. It may even reinvigorate Trump’s core supporters, although it is understandable that some will make the punishment of the rapacious Trump their obsessive goal. It would be best to see Democrats who are more centrist and Republicans who are more centrist working together to produce balanced policies, and rejecting extremism and wokism. That way perhaps the Trumpism might be finally ejected from the USA and that great nation can again espouse values to be respected and exert proper and desirable influence again, while ensuring a better lot for the American people. Is that desirable? Will Democrats seek to reestablish a rapport with the nation’s allies, and take a determined stand against the warmongers such as Putin and the Iran leadership. America united with a Europe which builds its military with urgency can bring peace more broadly and perhaps deter those who think might is right and bully accordingly.
BREAKING THE FRIGHTENED SILENCE
The big hope from these elections perhaps is that the previously cowed and frightened but virtuous majority of Americans will feel free to speak up; to challenge Trump and his twisted crew for their immorality; call out the egocentric tweets and speeches and decisions which characterise his behaviour; denigrate USA policy when it is clearly unfair or based on lies; feel and speak of the disgust with Trump and others befriending the evil murderous Putin, unashamed to describe this modern Hitler as a humanitarian; and use their freedoms of speech and action without fear of retaliation by the executive government of the USA. Perhaps the leaders of other Democracies too will see that autocrats have no place in a free world. If the media finds its moral teeth, the USA can start to be a proud respected nation again. Is a new dawn there to enjoy or are we in for a rough ride?
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