Is the rest of the free world displaying a foolish and weak supine passiveness in the face of Donald Trump’s assault on the world? Or is this a clarion wake-up call to restore courage, responsibility and leadership to decision-making on the important issues of the day by democracies at risk of failing?
The Trump Presidency arrived with a blaze of executive orders and pronouncements, to a large degree consistent with his electioneering promises, however outlandish. Most days in the last 5 weeks since his Presidency began, daily news has been focussed on, if not always dominated by, Trump’s ideas and intentions as he expounds them.
In an article “Trumpism – A Wake-up Call…” we addressed his unattractive character and his desire to disrupt, and to sow confusion and his single prism to see all of life’s events as a negotiation. He cannot bear ever to be seen to lose. He deliberately shocks to distract. He can u turn on a sixpence without batting an eyelid as truth and integrity play no part in his objectives, other than to the extent they may be persuasive to his purpose. However, to react to his extremism with angst and even panic is to justify for him his approach: that state of mind is not a good one from which to negotiate. Or to react with weakness is only to encourage him further, as he will see a time to strike. Can it be that, if he respects anything or if he has fear, it will be respect for or fear of strong resistance, fearing the possibility of being perceived to lose or to be outmanoeuvred? His real power of course lies not in his character and brilliance, but in the fact that the USA is by some way the most powerful nation on earth economically, financially and militarily.
The Trump effect can be examined briefly by reflecting on his various wars or his approach to the wars of others.
THE WAR ON WOKE
It is a shame that wokeness has become an all-embracing term for extreme behaviour in minority causes, whereas it really describes a limited social awareness of a limited problem. Such is today’s culture of sweeping generalisation to box up issues into black and white simplicity and so totally mislead.
However, Donald Trump, POTUS, has declared his war on woke, seeking to sweep away Diversity, Equity and Inclusion philosophies, that is DEI, which have so deeply infiltrated life across so many sectors of the USA, from Government to Corporations to Universities. Arguably, Democrats’ obsessive and extreme embrace of wokeness was their election undoing. The application of DEI as insistently as was done was a mistake as it did not reflect the wishes of most people. Extreme DEI is foolish as it defies norms. And yet the concepts of reasonable approaches to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, so that all people are treated with respect and dignity and a broad fairness are good things which most people would buy into. But they do not buy in when the extreme application produces gross limitations of freedom, cancellations of people, intolerance of contrary views, skews normal behaviour or defies common sense. Equally the Trump “deletion” of DEI is extreme and the reasonable decency which DEI involves is being deleted too: this is unbalanced. On the other hand, is it surprising that Donald Trump is hailed for his common sense in saying there are only two sexes, and so leading to a ban on biological men who identify as women competing with biological women in sport?
His approach also has revealed the extreme hypocrisy which those who followed the DEI fashion religiously for fear of being singled out for criticism by minority defenders. With no hesitation tech corporations in the USA, as their bosses pander to ingratiate themselves with POTUS, of course probably for financial gain, are binning their “woke” policies with haste.
DEI is falling off the priority radar. For example, Goldman Sachs has announced its diversity policy has served its purpose. How quickly will the U.S. Universities change their spots given that academics and students it seems have become terrified of facing life facts?
The UK has become deeply entrenched in wokeness. There has undoubtedly been fear around disagreeing with extreme behaviour in the name of minority interests. Will the UK now return to a more balanced approach? Will the NHS and Civil Service and perhaps the Police start to modify their linguistic gymnastics to avoid words like “women” or “black” in case there is a risk of offence? Will now perhaps the over-sensitive fear of hurting feelings decline? Will publishers stop cancelling books or rewriting them to edit out any words or phrases which the woke police suggest could possibly create a feeling for somebody of offence or anxiety? We should watch this space with interest.
WAR ON TRADE – TARIFFS AND TAKEOVERS
Donald Trump says he loves tariffs. He declares how other nations have abused the USA on trade. He wants things Americans want to be made in America. But the world and global trade are complex and the intricacies and all the issues raised by his threats to impose tariffs and their actual imposition are way beyond the scope and competence of this article. His threat to impose tariffs of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico no doubt terrifies the victim countries: but they have been quickly delayed because of willing concessions made on border control. A deal with each country has to be done. Into the mix, he also tossed his belief that Canada should become part of the USA, which is precisely the sort of timebomb he loves to set ticking to create unease in negotiation, eliciting a response of horror. Is he going to take over Canada? And he threatens to invade or buy Greenland, where he no doubt sees security vulnerability, but also economic opportunism for its richness in minerals. Greenland is in Denmark’s sway but seems to want independence, and there China and Russia see an opportunity, which the USA needs to snuff out.
A universal 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports to the USA is one of the latest bombshells: if such protectionism continues, global trade will be seriously affected: the EU and others will have to retaliate with tariffs the other way. Apparently too it could seriously impact the UK. Many businesses dependent on selling to the USA will face reduced sales and maybe life threatening damage. But is there a quid pro quo which countries will offer to see these tariffs minimised? Surely a negotiation will begin. His biggest target is China and tariffs on all goods from China, which is already responding against certain U.S. sourced products it imports by imposing its own tariffs. The car industry across the world could be thrown into turmoil as Americans largely prefer foreign cars to domestically produced cars should tariffs spread across that industry.
The outcome of this chaotic disruption to trade worldwide is unclear. Americans will pay more for goods. But other countries will suffer. It is the uncertainty created by the tariff wars which may do the most damage to markets, and some nations’ economies. Tit for tat tariff imposition will ultimately be replaced by negotiated settlements but until then it is private businesses and the consumers who will pay the price whether in the USA or elsewhere.
REAL WARS, ENDING THEM AND PREVENTING THEM
Donald Trump vaunts his part in the ceasefire to the war in Gaza, which is a tentative step towards the goal of lasting peace. That in turn is of course a distant speck on the horizon. He issues an imprecise threat against Hamas if they do not hand over prisoners. The ceasefire could break at any time, but now POTUS announces that the USA will take over Gaza, which is to a great extent physically destroyed: he sees it as a “real estate development” opportunity. That very description is a bizarre intervention and perhaps even an insult to the hundreds of thousands who have experienced terrible suffering. He suggests it will be rebuilt to great standards and become a highly desirable territory. Meanwhile he suggests the surrounding Arab States, such as Saudi and Jordan house 2 million refugees. The world is shocked accordingly. But is not what he has done to come up with a solution, though totally extreme, impracticable and illegal? Does he want U.S. companies to profit hugely from the rebuilding of Gaza? He surely is challenging the Arab world to come up with another solution, dipping into their very rich pockets in the case of say Saudi, Qatar and the Emirates, to take responsibility for their fellow Palestinian neighbours; and of course, Israel too must play a part. Surely it is time for a pan Arab solution to give the Palestinians a permanent home of their own. Will the Arab world step up? Meanwhile Trump outrages.
Then in Ukraine, he promised to bring about peace. Ignoring the rest of Europe, he starts his own talks with Putin, the war criminal and modern-day Hitler, and belatedly he is involving Ukraine itself. He says he wants to stop the killing. Is that really the motivator? Quite possibly he is going to demand peace terms which are a gift to Putin and a complete betrayal of Ukraine. He will not commit the USA to help protect Ukraine. He is perhaps negotiating with Ukraine a price for U.S. support, such as access to Ukraine’s riches in minerals. Does he see a chance to be the Nobel Peace Prize winner? Whether it’s Gaza, Ukraine or Taiwan the last thing POTUS seems to want to resort to is American military might being committed beyond its borders and so he is pushing others, especially Europe, to do that job: this could prove a serious weakness in his bravado and game of bluff and dare.
Pragmatically Ukraine will have to cede territory to Putin because they cannot alone defeat Russia. The question is how much and how much security can be guaranteed. POTUS sees the future defence of Ukraine as a matter for the rich countries of Europe. Or, perhaps, if Europe takes real action, he may lend support. For peace to prevail, Putin must portray himself as a winner. Can any treaty with Putin be trusted? Surely not. Is POTUS challenging Europe to step up to the plate and commit to defend Ukraine? And why is Europe not proactively coming up with plans? The answer to the latter lies in the supine weakness of European leadership, with only those in the immediate line of Putin’s sights, such as Poland, really standing fast. The UK and France recognise the need but are they willing to provide the massive firepower required to deter Russia? Even if willing, they do not have it yet.
It is several years since President Trump in his first term made clear it was time Europe put up the money to defend itself, and in those years most of the EU and the UK have done little to bolster their forces, still wholly dependent on American military might. The leaders of Europe need to grasp the military nettle and commit to properly protecting their nations and spend accordingly. And ultimately their populaces must pay, which means sacrificing some home comforts. Putin is a dominant nuclear power and for that reason compromise is needed: but Europe must secure Ukraine’s future for the sake of all European nations, as inevitably, even if a treaty is agreed , one day Putin will be ready to break it and invade again unless deterred.
Preventing Putin making further war will only be achieved through real strength being demonstrated in opposition: like Trump, Putin responds to strong resistance. Despite all the outlandish statements and demands of Donald Trump, Europe needs to shed its appeasement and take control of its destiny.
TRUMP’S WEAKNESS THREATENS DEMOCRACIES
Donald Trump has no qualms about negotiating with and being seemingly a friend to both Russia and China. In particular he proudly boasts of his great relationships with Putin and President Xi. He even suggests he can come to real accommodations with them, such as agreeing mutual reductions in nuclear weapons and defence spending with them. Putin and Xi may well agree any formula which makes the U.S. weaker. But they are much stronger in their own countries than Trump is in his. They have not balked at breaking laws and treaties if it suits their aims. They have publicly established intentions to whittle away at Western Democracies. They already attack Western Democracies with cyber warfare and cut essential cables at sea. And militarily the deaths by the thousands of their own peoples is, it seems, of little consequence to them. They do not face any free speech in their own countries which they cannot suppress. Unfortunately, the authoritarian and dictatorial traits displayed by Putin and Xi are common to Donald Trump as well. They could purport to become friends: if so the consequences for the rest of the free world could be calamitous. That Trump has declared that Putin can join the G7 indicates he seems not to care about Putin’s criminality and evil disposition, whereas it is hoped the rest of the G7 will care very much. Is Trump’s seeming acceptance of Putin as a better friend than his European allies a game of bluff or is it real?
TRUMP’S TYRANNY and WHAT ABOUT THE UK?
Donald Trump seeks to out negotiate all before him and to impose his will in the USA and around the globe. Will the checks and balances in the USA Constitution prevent the more outrageous acts of tyranny in the USA itself? He, using his agent Elon Musk, is cleansing the U.S. public sector of those he sees as a waste of space and money, in the Development Aid office for example. Will the democratic countries around the world let him bully or will they stick to their values, compromising only where it is right to do so.
A big issue looms for the UK. The USA is the UK’s best friend. POTUS loves the Royal Family, and golf in the UK! The UK depends on the USA for its security. It is clear the UK must remain a true ally of the USA. Recent press commentaries suggest the Trump influence in the UK will be considerable. Headlined articles like “Let’s celebrate: Donald Trump is vaccinating the West against the woke mind virus” in the Daily Telegraph and “From trade to tanks, how Trump is shaping UK agenda“ illustrate thinking. Then the strange, almost incomprehensible deal by the UK to give away the Chagos Islands to Mauritius and pay billions in rent may hinge on Trump’s reaction. But as far as tariffs go, if Prime Minister Starmer can steer a path of not taking sides for Europe v the USA and vice versa without repercussions, that will be an achievement. The gaming has only just begun, and Trump is lighting fires on numerous fronts: nobody can predict him and so all are afraid. But surely Western and other democratic leaders, including the UK, must resist his outrageous demands and learn how to negotiate and deal with a man who, perhaps, when all is said and done, is a pragmatist and really wants people to admire him.
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