“WHO WILL DEFEND EUROPE?”
If the current posture of the USA to loosen its commitment to stand with Europe is real, a transformation in European philosophy is needed. If Europe cannot demonstrate military might to deter Putin from more land grab, is a wider European war inevitable? Are European politicians and Generals waking from their stupor to realise a Russian aggressor may be real about war, or will they keep their military heads in the sand?
The Weekend Essay in the FT on 15 February was entitled “Who will Defend Europe?” written by a Russian strategy expert from Chatham House, Keir Giles. It raises some frightening existential questions. Perhaps the most telling sentence is “West of Warsaw war is something that happens to other people”. Whatever Ukrainian peace treaty is finally ironed out, Putin’s pronounced aim to annihilate or at least neuter Ukraine and extend Russia’s empire to previous glory will remain, “revising historic strategic mistakes”. In that case, unless deterred by an overwhelming force, which to date relies on the USA’s NATO commitments, Putin surely will, rearmed and confident, in the near future renew his Ukraine campaign; and perhaps he will attack another border nation, such as Estonia or Poland, and possibly wage a level of war against Western nations such as the UK. Mark Rutte, head of NATO, says “I am telling you very clearly we must prepare for war” and “That is the best way to avoid war”. Putin is without question a modern Hitler. Keir Giles likens these times to the 1930s, as European leaders sought to appease Adolf Hitler to no avail: but he considers the position this time is worse because in the 1930s the Allies (then without the USA) had at least prepared to some degree for war, whereas now they have not.
DONALD TRUMP SOWS LIES AND FEAR: TACTICS?
That Donald Trump, POTUS, is prepared to treat Putin with respect and countenance ceding to his wishes is perhaps the most terrifying of the Trump actions to date as President. He is now treating European allies with greater disdain than Putin himself. He suggests that President Zelensky started the evil war, though it was in fact initiated by Putin, and that he is a dictator ruling Ukraine without popular support – all made up without evidence : this represents a return to the Trump so well seen in the past, fabricating pronouncements of disinformation, sowing confusion and fear. He seems to contemplate dividing NATO and a withdrawal by the USA from its treaty commitment to defend Europe. This must all be music to Putin ears. Is this a genuine plan or negotiating wizardry?
Is this all designed to stun European leaders out of their torpor? As it seems the ostriches have been unable to understand for themselves that they need to defend their nations , not freeload off the USA as they have done. President Trump also hates the EU/USA trade deficit which he sees massively in the EU’s favour. Is security the big bargaining chip for trade concessions as well? Probably, as Trump tends to see leverage all around. But Europeans must get their heads out of the sand, including Keir Starmer of the UK and his fellow Ministers. These so-called leaders need to start to lead and confront realities.
REAL RISK OF EUROPEAN DEMISE WITHOUT THE USA
Putin’s military might, though diminished by the Ukraine war, is said to exceed that of the whole of Europe. Without USA support militarily Ukraine would surely have been squashed. Putin, experts say, has barely touched his vast array of long-range missiles and airborne weapons delivery systems. Apparently, the rearming process represents one third of the Russian economy and building weaponry is much cheaper in Russia than in Western Europe. Western democracies, such as the UK, France and Germany, have low stockpiles of arms and ammunition. The UK has a vulnerable, or barely existent, air defence system, and has a shortage of air force pilots. While the UK and France offer a strategic nuclear deterrent, they have no tactical nuclear weapons, while Putin has shedloads.Armour aside, while Putin can drag his whole nation to war and death, Western European populations possibly have little stomach for fighting – a recent survey in the UK suggested that most young people of fighting age would not defend their country. Wars are perhaps lost through lack of determination as much as lack of firepower; and Ukrainian people have shown how vital the popular will to fight can be in challenging a much more powerful foe.
If Putin, led on by Trump, believes the USA will not, at least with Donald Trump as POTUS, come to the aid of Europe if Putin attacks NATO countries, that is in the next 4 years, he may see a window of unpreparedness and weakness through which to jump. He is very capable of deciding to do that, without a U.S. deterrent. Destroying for example the UK infrastructure such as power stations and green energy sources, cutting vital undersea cables, and cyber attacks could at least destabilise and perhaps cripple the UK economically and militarily. Similarly, France and Germany: all the time Putin will have the threat of using, or might even use, tactical nuclear weapons with no danger of reprisal in kind. Resort to strategic nuclear weapons in retaliation by Europe would herald mutual destruction.
Somehow the Europeans must persuade POTUS to commit to guarantee security through NATO at least for an interim period, during which time the Europeans must spend hugely building weaponry for modern and long-range warfare, as well as building up armies and air power. Or else Europe may well face a deadly demise.
OSTRICHES NEED URGENCY
The ostrich leaders still just talk, holding summits. That will anger Trump who wants to see action. The EU is hampered by dissenting pro-Russian nations in its community. There will surely be no commitment from the USA unless the ostriches take their heads out of the sand, both promising and delivering an urgent rearming of massive proportions, costing many billions. The defence spend of 2.5% of GDP, a current target, is obviously nowhere near enough. That will have to be paid for by cuts, in the UK at least, in the biggest budgets such as welfare and benefits, net zero commitments by delaying them at least, reducing pensions and absolutely slashing public sector waste. Talk of the 4-day working week is for the birds. At the same time , to avoid bankruptcy, economic growth has to be delivered. Surely too a massive build up of reservist armed forces is required across Europe. That could prove the easy part, because the hearts and minds of people first need persuading that the risk of war is real and that peace and freedom is worth fighting for as in 1939: any efforts to do this will inevitably be confronted with Russian and Chinese led social media disinformation to the contrary. This persuasive effort will depend considerably on the support of respected media.
If Donald Trump’s actions and words are to be taken at face value, perhaps the most frightening thing is that POTUS and his acolyte “Ministers”, such as J.D. Vance the Vice-President, and Elon Musk, as well as the President himself, have such low moral fibre that they are prepared to sup with and befriend the most evil man in Europe, Putin. He is a dictator of the worst kind, with a lust for power, willing to devastate the lives of others; a war criminal seeking to wipe out a nation, Ukraine; he has made millions homeless, he has kidnapped children by the thousands, and his armies rape and execute at will; he imprisons , tortures and murders his opponents and he has put the world at risk of world war 3. If those rulers of the USA continue that way, and unless their declared love for Putin is a tactical ruse, they can never be relied on again and are to be despised and reviled surely by all Western and other Democracies, their peoples and their media.
The survival of Western freedom and prosperity and avoiding a terrible war now is in the hands of the leaders of Europe. Will World War 2 remind them that war is not just something that happens to other people?
See also:
Trumpism, Threats, Takeovers and Tariffs
Trumpism – A wake-up Call for Western Elitism
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