Is the key to both European security and UK productivity an injection of a vaccine of urgency?
European leaders including the UK PM continue to show a remarkable lack of urgency around a great many matters, especially the threats to security posed particularly by Russia, backed by its best friends such as China, Iran and North Korea. Is lack of urgency now endemic as if the West, apart from Trump with his almost daily executive orders, thinks problems will just go away.
“Productivity” is among economists and financial gurus the one consistent key to economic growth in the UK. And growth is the universally accepted key to improving living standards and public services. This has been known for many years but increasing productivity has eluded UK Government and the country as a whole. Are that same lack of urgency and fear of making a mistake poisoning British working culture? Injecting urgency and confidence may be core ingredients to solving the growth malaise.
SECURITY AT RISK
Russia is now regularly sending drones and aircraft into Eastern European countries, which are members of NATO. It has emerged that NATO remains totally unequipped to deal with cheap drones, having to use expensive missiles and aircraft to destroy them, and there is common admission that it is unprepared. Ukraine’s help with necessary technology is being sought. It has been obvious for at least a year, and perhaps a lot longer if expert eyes had been open, that cheap drones are for now a key to modern warfare, but the UK and other countries have been slow to develop their own in numbers or necessary counter measures.
Lasers are a way forward it seems. Israel has a laser system about ready to go. The UK has, it is reported, advanced laser defence technology but its roll out seems a way off. And no sense of urgency that it might be needed imminently. The recent meeting of seven European nations to discuss a drone wall to combat Russia is a start. And the UK and Ukraine have announced a joint Project, Octopus, for the UK to use Ukrainian technology to manufacture thousands of defensive Interceptor drones a month, and it is said it will be happening within weeks. Let’s hope so.
It is now reported that Russian satellites are closely monitoring German satellites; that the UK, despite establishing a Space Command in 2021, is incapable of responding to a Space war where Rusia destroys satellites, as is Europe. If satellites are knocked out, the effect would be devastating. Urgency is required to fill the gap.
It is well recorded that European countries including the UK plan to up their defence game but there are few reports of real activity. Some equipment is reported to be ordered but the lead times are long. No urgency and no prioritisation are obvious. It is notable that it took Poland 2 years to up its defence spend to 3.5% of GDP: the UK aims at the same target in 10 years. Poland is of course on the front line. Meanwhile the whole Russian economy is dedicated to war. Europe remains more a talking shop. It is perhaps a shocking dereliction of duty which is putting citizens at serious risk while governments acknowledge that Russia and its allies are attacking European infrastructure and cyberspace constantly.
Meanwhile through his social media Trump has declared that Ukraine can beat Russia with NATO’s help but leaving it all to Europe to achieve that. Trump for now is saying to hell with Zelensky and Ukraine. And still Europe buys Russian fossil fuel, funding its war against the West with billions of dollars buying oil but mainly gas. It could stop tomorrow if it was prepared to pay more elsewhere for fuel. Again, no urgency and a reluctance to take pain. Do European leaders even recognise Trump has stepped back and is washing his hands of the war at least for now? But he is certainly right that it makes no sense for the USA to impose stronger sanctions on Putin while Europe keeps handing him tens of billions to fund his war.
ECONOMIC REALITY: ACTION IS URGENTLY NEEDED
Every source looked at indicates that the productivity of UK workers, say output per hour, is significantly lower than those in the USA, Germany and France and several other major economies.That conclusion is based on averages and within the UK there will certainly be major productivity success stories not just within particular organisations but in certain regions. The poor productivity of some Northern regions represents a huge opportunity for improvement, well recognised but barely capitalised on. The level of worklessness in the UK is rising, with the young particularly vulnerable with numbers not in work, education or training growing daily. Productivity in public services has been declining consistently, though the recent announcement that the NHS has improved productivity in the last year is welcome, but it is from a low base. And if more people keep diagnosing themselves as unfit to work, the remaining people in work will have to produce more just to stand still. Urgent, clear and tough measures are needed.
What could be simply improved to increase productivity? Reducing the predominance of low skilled labour in UK workers, by skills training being compulsory for anyone not working or in training; nobody leaving school without maths and English and reading proficiency; what about financial incentives for businesses to improve productivity, such as tax rebates. The drivers to improve productivity and levers to pull them need to be identified. Is it management competence in many cases? Is it unmotivated staff, or staff without skills so no decision to implement gets taken quickly? Are people minding their backs? Government promises less regulation, but nothing seems to happen. The UK pays more for its energy than other comparable countries – Government could change that.
EVERYTHING TAKES TOO LONG
The following projects and issues have something in common: housebuilding; HS2 and other infrastructure projects; the welfare bill must come down: a great many welfare claims, such as PIP for anxiety cases, are dealt with virtually when it is face to face interviewing which limits the claims best, yet nothing seems to be done; defence procurement programmes always seem to run over time and over budget as observed by the National Audit Office, yet nothing seems to be done and heads don’t roll. Regulatory burdens slow most activity, and once a decision is made implementation lacks urgency. Everything takes too long.
Yet in Covid, when crisis hit, vaccine development, regulatory approval and production happened in record time and having the private sector running the programme with the civil service in tandem was the key. Efficient and rapid change and development is possible with the right drivers. Recently the multimillion pound new Thames sewer project was brought in on time and budget and is hailed as an example of how to run projects: is this a template for others?
Maybe the UK needs a culture reset where important things are addressed with urgency. Major consultations before decision making need to be cut in time. Each individual perhaps should take responsibility to be more efficient, cut work downtime and all contribute to the productivity needed to dig the UK out of its self-made hole.
Urgency may be the jab the UK and the rest of Europe need, not just to defend against an increasingly emboldened Putin, but to grow economically too.
