A UKRAINE STRATEGY TO WIN IS URGENT
The world is paying a high price on many fronts for a malaise which has beset the free democratic governments, which is a lack of strategic vision, wisdom and courage driven by short termism: and the underlying virus is greed in its broadest sense, at the individual, social and leadership levels.
Putin wins his war if he can keep lands he has stolen from Ukraine through barbaric disregard for human life, and continuing war crimes. He will win unless the democratic nations commit strategically to his defeat, and if he does, as President Zelensky and certain wise voices warn, he will march on other smaller European nations confident in the lack of courage in the West to expend whatever is necessary to resist his criminality. The ultimate cost of resistance on these wider fronts tomorrow will surely be far greater than the cost to defeat him now.
To date, various leaders have declared a constancy of support for Ukraine, but deeds have not matched the words. Critical weaponry has been drip fed and only given when it seems almost too late. The delivery of airplanes, not yet implemented, but which has taken until now when mastery of the skies is totally Russian, is a typical example of fear of Putin’s escalation causing vacillation and weakness at the highest levels of governments. That delivery may be too late. The UK has been a leader in encouraging more commitment, and other countries have varied, but the UK lacks sufficient military resources to solve any major problem, which requires a united effort by all democratic nations, not just the USA. Never has a united Europe been more needed, and in modern times it seems full of cracks.
President Zelensky continues to warn that it will not just be Ukrainian men and women sacrificing themselves if Putin wins, but eventually all European nations ‘ citizens will be sucked in. Their lives will be lost. Warnings by experts of a full-blown war with Russia in the foreseeable years can be dismissed as panic. But Putin has demonstrated a will to deny his country prosperity through lies and deceit about Western intentions and sacrificing the lives of Russians needlessly to distract from any other real issues domestically. It is astonishing that American and European politicking to delay committed long term funds in the required tens of billions has become more important to these so-called leaders than extinguishing the threat of a war with Russia. So, lack of strategic wisdom and courage is risking the lives and livelihoods of all of Europe and global stability.
But this strategic myopia has, with hindsight, in fact beset politicians and others for decades in almost every important sector of activity. As a result, contagious conflicts and disruptions are spreading like a virus.
DEPENDENCIES and CHINA and RUSSIA
The Western world and other democracies, in pursuit of easy money, and short-term greed, ceded power to Russia and China over the last decades. They poured money into China as vital for their businesses to make gains from this promising growth machine, to find that China, always through the controlling power of the Chinese Communist Party, stole the know-how and, once the Western goodies were taken, spat out the visitors. The UK Government after the financial crisis totally misread Chinese largesse and took its investment cash to solve immediate shortfalls vaunting a new relationship for mutual benefit. They were blind to its malevolent strategy – yes, they have had a consistent one – to weaken democracies, to steal data and technology, to monopolise resources, to provide cheaper everything. China has built its armed forces to a level to match the USA, almost, while Europe has largely sat on its hands. They have been allowed, while Western leaders sat back, to buy much of Africa, to buy much of Australian minerals, to strengthen and purchase the corrupt autocrats wherever they may be. Dependence on them for medical materials, batteries, key minerals, certain chips, and a multitude of other products, such as steel, has made democracies’ ability to resist their forces supine. The rolling back has started but it could be too late. That China influence, through money – that is greed on Universities’ and authorities’ parts – in UK Universities, is wholesale and damaging is a realisation made again too late and it will take years to reverse, assuming a will to do so. And now the world treats it as inevitable that China will dominate in production and sales of Electric Vehicles: is that wise? Is a stand needed? It is worth remembering that China, Russia, Iran and North Korea seem aligned in the purpose of world disruption and animosity to Democratic power.
Most bizarre is the historic Western defence of Taiwan and support for it while not formally recognising it politically, playing out a game that it belongs to China, but telling China it cannot have it! Taiwan is under open threat from China and many nations are passively staying quiet, aside from the USA, as always at least taking a position behind Taiwan. If Taiwan goes to China so does control of world microchips.
World dependency on Russia for fuel, oil and gas has proved a grave error. Europe, especially Germany, regretted its dependency on Russian energy once Putin declared war on Ukraine and invaded, and has been playing catch up ever since. Western democracies apply sanctions against Russia but are incapable of sanctioning everything Russian as they depend on certain materials which are plentiful in Russia. Their grain is essential worldwide, as they stifle Ukraine as a food producer. The USA and much of the world relies on Russia for enriched uranium as nuclear energy so that is not sanctioned. Russia is in effect at war with Europe, but they still trade together! Russia, and China, cyber-attack Democracies as a matter of course which seems to be accepted, but only because leaders fear the adverse consequences if they stand up to them totally.
Germany’s calamitous strategic madness in ditching nuclear power following the Fukishima crisis in Japan has proven disastrous, throwing Germany into Russia’s arms.
Meanwhile as Russia and China amass their forces of destruction, it took Trump and Ukraine to wake up Germany and several other NATO countries (excluding the USA, France and the UK) to the reality that they depend entirely on the USA for defence, neglecting to spend properly on their armed forces. When national security is the first duty of government, those nations’ governments have been either strategically militarily asleep at the wheel or strategically reckless. Now they try to catch up at a time when finances are stretched to their limit, after the financial crisis of 2009, Covid and with global supply chains in upheaval as well as a war in Ukraine and now in the Middle East. The UK has foolishly let its armed forces run down in the name of short-term budgets and somehow now time is short to face the music and build them to face real conflicts actual and potential. Yet the defence department seems almost tied in knots even to implement a successful recruitment campaign it having been obvious for years that the current structure outsourced to Capita has failed.
AND MORE STRATEGIC IGNORANCE
The developed world was not prepared for Covid, a huge strategic error. The developed world has postponed to the point of crisis the big push to defeat climate change by carbon reduction, almost unforgiveable strategic failure. To be fair the UK has done more than most.
In education in the UK while the last decade saw some improvement in results, there has been little strategic advancement. Tony Blair was right with his “education, education, education” sound bite. But in implementation he was so wrong . The idea that as many as possible should go to university as a goal has proven disastrous as so many young people unsuited for academia wasted years on courses of no practical use to them or the world and emerged saddled with debt. This fallacy is now exposed, as leaders see the disastrous shortage of young people with practical skills translatable into productivity for their own and the national good. For example, it is evidently a strategic necessity to build say 300,00 or more new affordable homes a year. Similarly, it is a strategic necessity to move millions of homes from gas boilers to other green boilers. That building requires tens of thousands more skilled builders and plumbers and electricians and other trades people, and the boiler programme requires thousands more engineers. Without them the targets are a pipedream.
But where is the long-term strategic plan to train these people and indeed for education as a whole: money is relevant but most important as is universally known is that high quality teachers are the answer. Everybody knows that education is the real way out of poverty for those who struggle. Yet the focus is on benefits payments and easy lives for all. Plans may exist for the issues identified (and there are many others like them), but if they do, then they need a lot more publicity to create consumer confidence in meeting needs.
Everybody also knows the NHS is not fit for purpose and is a bottomless money pit. Of course, there are parts of high-quality efficiency but the also rans seem unable to learn from the highflyers. It would be very surprising if an institution designed 70 years ago were the right model for a society which has otherwise changed out of all recognition. Labour vows to reform it and not pour cash down its voracious throat: but true reform can only come via some public/private initiative. No politicians seem to have the stomach for a discussion or real action, other than sticking plaster over a massive yoke round the national neck which renders national financial prosperity almost impossible.That is because, along with a failing social benefits system, it devours the nation’s hard-earned money always demanding more. The NHS is a perennial strategic failure and needs to be grasped by strategic decisions.
In the health vein, at least the fact that the UK is the fattest and most unhealthy major country in Europe is a recognised national disaster. There is too in the Dimbleby Report a National Plan: but it is only slowly and half-heartedly being implemented. Again, a strategic brave decision to persuade and incentivise people to change national habits is vital to future prosperity. In the food vein, security of food supply is fundamental, but the UK is dependent on excessive imports, and, if conflict looms, this would be another Achilles heel: the UK could be quite self sufficient in key foods but again is there a national strategy to achieve that?
Rare minerals and microchips are vital components for modern society to function. China holds too many strings. But the UK has allowed itself to be entirely dependent on others, rather than building diverse supply chains and, at least as regards microchips, failing to have a declared strategic plan, allowing its industry to be taken over or to atrophy. Catch up again is required. It is fair to ask whether anybody in a leading role watched this happening and why nothing was done.
Finally, energy, the fundamental key to survival along with air, food and water. As already recorded the free world has been strategically blind. The USA maximised fracking, the UK kowtowed to softer concerns and eschews it, but at a huge cost potentially. Sustainable wind, sun and waves, green energy sources are the name of the day and the known long-term future rests with nuclear fission; but nuclear fusion, clean hydrogen from air and other unproven sources may be the magic dust. But until then any nation which cannot guarantee its energy – without which there is no internet, digital world, transport or much else to speak of – is at unacceptable risk in every sense. Here it seems at least the UK is progressing.
PERVERSITY AND WHO WILL GRASP THE NETTLE
The Israel/Hamas war is casting a spotlight on some harsh realities. Extremism is preventing peace. The antisemitic lobbies which permeate much of the world are poison to peace. Hamas’ purpose is declared to be genocide of the Jews, reminiscent of the holocaust which spawned genocide as a concept. How ironic that unbelievably South Africa accuses Israel of genocide in Gaza and that commentators lend it credence. Their evident objective is to defend themselves against a Hamas sworn to continue with more barbaric attacks like those of October 7. Of course, Israel’s extremist leader may be going too far, maybe in breach of international law and would be wise and humane to reduce destruction, but this accusation of genocide is a disgrace: but antisemitic suspicions allow it to survive. The International Court of Justice in issuing interim orders to Israel to avoid genocidal acts might perhaps have been better to remain silent until the main charge is actually addressed.
Houthis bomb civilian shipping; if that is not terrorism, what is? Yet some talk of them as if with respect. That the U.S. and the UK are trying to keep the Red Sea and Suez Canal open with as limited strikes as possible against the Houthis is necessary and for the world’s benefit. But most of the world remains silent. Few allies of those countries are helping, yet Europe depends on this sea route. Leaders of major countries doing little are almost endorsing terrorist behaviour. These leaders need to become decisive and make strategic bold decisions.
That democratic nations still deal with Iran, which expressly supplies and encourages the Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis to wreak havoc and terror, is beyond belief. It is likely that total condemnation and tough action to match will slow the terror mongers down. However, they are of course backed by Russia. China seeks to sit on the fence as regards action but who knows what behind the scenes machinations it and its allies are about? Fear of escalation is all very well but an iron will to win is the only way to win. That is obvious in Ukraine and it is obvious in the Red Sea and it is obvious whenever dealing with autocrats who care nothing for truth or humanity. Is not this the opportunistic hour the terrorising Islamic extremists have waited for, and they will not drop it easily? Is there not something perverse in the fact that the USA and the European Commission are the biggest historic suppliers of aid to Gaza and the Yemen to help those innocent suffering people, and yet they are demonised?
Is it not a little depressing that countries such as India lack leaders of moral fibre that they will not come out against Putin for his criminal inhuman atrocities ranging from trucking kidnapped children into Russia to rape and torture and mass civilian killings, wanton indiscriminate bombing aside: and all not to defend against an aggressor but for the sake of egoistic power mania.
The last decades have demonstrated a gross lack of strong moral leadership and strategic vision and thinking which is needed always . And so now more than ever it is right to call upon those in power or who seek power in elections to stand for united Democracies to work together to stand firm against all geopolitical risks with unwavering commitment. Those governments need to learn from the dire consequences now unfolding which largely result from weakness and fear of taking strategic decisions which have a real cost up front in the short term, both in risk and electoral popularity. Will they? Or will they not? Or will Republicans and Democrats. Conservatives and Labour, and their equivalents across democracies, focus as they seem to be today on destruction of the other political opponent, while Rome burns and those who will wreak disorder spread their violence and corruption which will reverse the massive human gains of the last 70 years.
Strategic and decisive planning is required on the global front but also on so many issues at the domestic level.
