- UK Government ban on new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars for 2035
- Are electric cars all that green?
- Alternative energy sources
- Electric bikes and scooters
- Should not the UK be more radical – is it not time to reassess the place of the motor car and adopt a new strategy to phase it out?
INTRODUCTION
A significant part of the UK strategy to become carbon neutral centres on the motor car and the plan to ban new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars from 2035. Consequently, the general conclusion is that the all-electric car (EV) will replace those vehicles, powered by batteries which in turn will be charged by centrally generated electricity delivered through charging points. In the fifteen years to 2035, as technology brings more innovation and options, this policy will need regular review. It is an emotional topic, where motorists will have strong views and its deliverability is open to question, particularly if the UK is very out of kilter with other main car using nations. This policy raises a number of issues, some of which are touched on below.
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH BATTERIES AND AT WHAT COST?
Using the most frugal battery technology available today, simply to produce the batteries needed to replace today’s volume of UK cars with EVs would take:
- twice the total annual world cobalt production
- half the world production of copper
- nearly the entire world production of neodymium
- three quarters of the world production of lithium
Assuming EVs are also “the answer” for other countries like the U.S. and China, clearly many times the amounts of these special minerals available today will have to be first discovered and also dug out of the ground. What then, even if available, will be the extra cost-of mining these minerals, not just in money but in environmental damage? Battery technology will no doubt develop, but if its roots remain the same, what will the ultimate cost be? Given laws of supply and demand – very expensive is the likely answer.
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH ELECTRICITY?
To power those UK based EVs will require, it is estimated, 20% more electricity than the UK currently generates. What will be the carbon neutral sources of that electricity? If wind farms or solar power are chosen, they will also impose a massive demand for minerals, let alone large quantities of steel, aluminium, cement and glass. What environmental and other cost is it to produce these? This increased demand for electricity is but one potential increase, and ignores the additional needs generated by a growing population and other activities. To build these power sources will require an early commitment, added to a commitment to the spend needed to install the estimated 200,000 public charging points to service the EVs. The cost of the related infrastructure will, there are estimates, be many tens of billions of pounds. (See the paragraph below on alternative power sources.)
IS MAKING EVs ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY?
The making of EVs is no greener a process than making diesel cars. The materials needed are similar, but the batteries are an extra ingredient. What amount of energy, metals and minerals are needed for this manufacturing? Will the power plants generating the electricity for this process be carbon neutral? The fact that the UK may make fewer of them may reduce the UK’s carbon footprint, but it will not reduce the World’s. For example, if many were built in China, and if China continues to use coal fired power stations, the EV carbon cost will be huge. It is reported that Volkswagen itself says that it would take almost 77,000 miles of motoring before an EV Golf will have less carbon impact than a diesel-powered Golf. In addition, the price today of EVs makes them unaffordable to the ordinary person, though presumably the cost will eventually come down with mass production.
ALTERNATIVE POWER SOURCES
Nuclear Fission and Fusion: Alternative ways of generating electricity are almost certain to become more viable. While nuclear fission power has been in use for a long time, public perception around it distracts from its potential. The current costings of the proposed new UK nuclear reactors at the moment seem prohibitive. But perhaps there is a solution in building much smaller nuclear generators but in greater numbers, assuming scientists can give enough comfort around safety and storage of nuclear waste. It often seems to be forgotten that most of France’s power has been nuclear sourced for decades without incident. That Germany has abandoned nuclear, and yet is reliant more and more on Russian gas, seems a poor decision. Perhaps, for the UK, nuclear should remain a source of power for a certain percentage of demand.
There is not a lot written about the potential of nuclear fusion, as opposed to fission. If that can be harnessed as a viable energy source, it is reported that it would be considerably cleaner than fission. The UK Atomic Energy Authority operates the Culham Centre for Fusion Energy. This centre describes itself as the world leader in developing fusion power – the ultimate source of electricity. It says it is turning the process that powers the sun into carbon free, safe and abundant electricity for a cleaner planet. If this reaches the commercial exploitation stage, though nobody can predict when that may be, it arguably should replace other carbon free sources – and so investment in those will be wasted.
Hydrogen: There is little publicity given also to the potential of hydrogen power (the most abundant element on the planet). Clean and potentially limitless in quantity, it releases no carbon dioxide. Apparently, there is already a trial project – HyDeploy – to inject hydrogen into a gas network to supply domestic users, and so materially reduce carbon emissions. There are at least 2 models of hydrogen powered cars. A possible hydrogen powered bus is discussed in the Business Pages of the Sunday Telegraph of 8 March.
Given that wind and solar power are weather dependent, other sources which are more constantly available, such as nuclear and hydrogen will be needed to keep supply consistent.
ELECTRIC BICYCLES AND SCOOTERS
Electric scooters will soon exist in numbers in the UK once legalised. It is reported that sales of electric bicycles are booming. Still expensive, they nevertheless will increasingly offer a real option for the average person to travel meaningful distances without becoming overtired and sweaty. They bring health benefits associated with normal cycling. UK urban streets are not especially safe for cyclists but if they could accommodate electric bikes as well as the electric scooter, they may become a desirable alternative means of transport in towns as well as the countryside (with the electric bike hills become negotiable even for the less fit ). They need batteries as do scooters, but nothing like the complexity of the EV battery.
A NEW STRATEGY – A MASSIVE REDUCTION IN PASSENGER CARS, AND EVs AS NEEDED
The talk of EVs assumes that the UK continues its love for the motor car. Maybe it is time for a divorce. There are some 32.5million passenger cars in the UK. If trends remain the same, given the expected population growth, the number will only increase. The UK roads are highly congested in many parts. London is one of the most traffic congested cities in the world. Would not a strategy designed to achieve objectives like those below be a better long-term option than planning for more and more cars. Given the carbon free priorities, now seems the right time to plan to:
- reduce massively the number of passenger cars to a few million in the UK (zero is probably impractical)
- cease to allow cars in urban and suburban areas (with exceptions such as taxis and emergency vehicles, provided they are electric)
- substantially reduce reliance on passenger cars in rural areas
- strongly disincentivise larger vehicles and incentivise ownership of small vehicles only, probably largely driverless.
To achieve these aims would require a sea change, including a major downsizing of the car industry as well as the shift to EVs. New and different employment opportunities, and training, would be required for those no longer needed in the industry.
Of course, public transport everywhere would have to be re-imagined. Significant expansion of the bus routes, trains and taxi services would be needed. But also new concepts could be adopted, such as entirely new local networks of hail and ride small buses. There would be little traffic, so journeys would be quick.
Electric bicycles and scooters could be more of a must have – much reduced traffic would make them safer. The cost of infrastructure to support cars would be a fraction of today’s cost. Park and ride outside cities could be a norm. All journeys would be much quicker and so productivity would increase. The certainly fewer road deaths and injuries would reduce emergency service costs, as well as save lives.
Of course, commercial vehicles – trucks and vans as well as a lot more buses – will be needed. Perhaps they will be electric, hybrid or hydrogen propelled. However, their ability to operate would be liberated by the lack of congestion and so the cost of delivery of goods and services would reduce, for commerce and consumers.
Perhaps a shake-up of the vehicle industry has to occur to reduce carbon emissions. Perhaps the time is now to take the opportunity with long term planning to get the public behind a total change in approach to minimise car dependence, save the huge cost of a switch to EVs as planned, and instead prepare for a new solution where the car is no longer at the heart of social life and at the same time more significantly reduce carbon emissions.
Notes: the facts quoted above under “WILL THERE BE BATTERIES?” and “WILL THERE BE ENOUGH ELECTRICITY” as to resources needed for UK EVs are drawn from the letter to the UK Committee on Climate Change by Prof Richard Hetherington (UK Natural History Museum Head of Earth Sciences) and other expert members of SoS MinErals in 2019.
