Is the USA sucking the UK so much into its orbit as to threaten the UK’s independence?
The climax to Trump’s UK visit, at least for Keir Starmer, was the final press conference where the “Technology Prosperity Deal” was the theme these leaders, or certainly the UK PM, wished to promote. All new investment to the UK by friendly States and corporations is to be warmly welcomed. However, when looked at in the round should we be applying a degree of scepticism to the motivation and potential dangers behind the American enthusiasm for the UK? That enthusiasm was accompanied by some extreme and perhaps inappropriately intrusive advice, or was it instruction, on how the UK needs to improve.
According to Trump and his spokesmen and women, we must it seems control immigration by whatever means necessary, using the military to stop the boats, probably illegal; we should not engage in pointless politics recognising the Palestinian State and so gifting a win to Hamas; we should be drilling for oil and gas and not obsessing with wind energy; and most emphatically we must safeguard freedom of speech which numerous Trump acolytes and the Washington machine consider seriously at risk in the UK and are spreading the word accordingly.
THE TECHNOLGY PROSPERITY DEAL: BEWARE
UK Government has earmarked advanced technology as a major strength of the UK and to be promoted strongly. Notably the UK is by far the leading European country for investment in tech start-ups and venture capital in general, though it is paltry compared to the USA. UK research and innovation is universally recognised as among world leaders. A consistent criticism of the UK is that, while, brilliant new technology and ventures are built here, such as in AI, it seems that there is complete incompetence in building them to significant size and that is left to foreign interlopers who buy up what should be a great corporate future for the UK. For example, only this year several mid-sized brilliant tech companies have been taken over by American investors or companies, such as Spectris (precision instruments), Alphawave (semiconductors) and Oxford Ionics (quantum computing). This a weakness of the UK which Government talks about redressing but nothing has happened. UK investors simply lack the muscle to fill the void. The USA realises our skills and exposed weaknesses.
In the week of Trump’s UK visit, there was vaunted a commitment by the U.S. to make £150 billion of UK investment. But these investments had largely been announced before. £100 billion is by private capital investor Blackstone: much of that is not of course new money but the price to buy UK businesses which it wants to buy in the next 5 years. The reason it wants to buy of course might perhaps be it sees the opportunities as cheap and good value, not a desire to further UK interests. Much of the other investment is in data centres for AI, much needed if the UK is to be an AI leader. And it will mean that the likes of Microsoft will own key UK AI infrastructure. Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, is putting £500 million into a UK start up Nscale, to build data centres to use its chips. Will we become dependent on the USA in AI, as in so many other vital service areas, such as GPS, defence and systems to process payments?
The Technology and Prosperity Deal make perfect sense, especially if you are the USA. It is a Memorandum of Understanding, committing the parties to an intent to cooperate in AI development, Civil nuclear power (small modular reactors especially) and quantum computing. Could this be dangerous, where the UK is the dwarf party with no clout? Could it be the basis from which the USA ensures it gets first look at and right to buy the best of British innovative know-how, or at least to reap the benefits? This would be entirely consistent with the way in which American big tech is building UK dependence on it. Nick Clegg recites that the UK risks becoming a vassal state. This is speculation, but it is consistent with Trump’s newfound role as influencer on wide UK policy matters, the UK kowtowing to his temperament, and the UK propensity to let its best innovation be pirated by foreigners. On the other hand, the UK lacks the resources to acquire advancing U.S. technology as it is priced too high and the competition from the U.S. could be too mighty.
The big tech geeks seem to be bearing gifts but maybe caution and cynicism is needed. And they are becoming immensely powerful in the UK, protected perhaps by Trump patronage, and maybe will be given an easy UK ride, when in fact their power needs reining in. When the UK is looking to technology for economic growth and prosperity, it will be an act of national suicide to stifle its global potential by ceding the benefits to the MAGA programme. Trump has bamboozled the UK on tariffs, such that the UK seems grateful to be paying an unwarranted 10%, and the Government must not repeat its weakness.
BEWARE THE FICKLE
Trump having wallowed in his second State visit, not rocking the boat as he tried to adopt a posture, which sits uneasily, of sophistication and graciousness in the face of unique Royal courtesy, he is now free of the shackles of propriety. Does anyone believe that his declared love affair with the King and Great Britain will stop him from betraying Europe and the UK when it suits him? His declared desire to stop the killing is totally debunked as he watches Putin ramp up his destruction of Ukraine and Netanyahu his destruction of Gaza. Trump remains Putin’s friend and Putin continues to seek to divide NATO and make effective war on Europe, invading airspace and cyber attacking and sabotaging, without Trump siding with Europe. And so the UK may be forced to recognise it cannot afford to depend on the USA for so much of its security and prosperity, at least until King Trump is deposed. If the PM believes his stroking of Trump’s ego and never calling him out means we can trust in Trump, he is even more deluded than is credible.
Trump bearing gifts is more dangerous than the geeks.
