CONTROL AND COURAGE CAN AVERT CRISIS
Is it possible that much unnecessary damage and disaster could be avoided if prescient action replaced crisis management? We enter 2026 with so many macro and global uncertainties and dangers to be resolved, as well as local challenges which confront nations. Perhaps there is a worldwide virus infecting decision-makers which leads them so often to defer problems until a crisis forces a snap decision. And then that decision proves far more costly than would have been the case had they been courageous and taken control earlier.
Artificial Intelligence, climate change, the war in Ukraine and the deadly Putin, The Islamist threat, social media, the big USA tech companies, the Chinese Communist Party and President Trump are but some of the global challenges for 2026. At home in the UK, local challenges include the entitlement and self-interested culture, poor productivity, and work shyness, our national identity, NHS and social care, personal health and obesity, and protecting society against crime and outside threats such as Putin, which are all urgent.
LESSONS AND A MENU FOR 2026 CHANGE
Taking social media, warnings have been published for many years now about the dangers of screen time, social media and the phone especially for the development of young people. In the UK and elsewhere the issues have now become so concerning that action is essential with at least one generation having been badly damaged which could have been avoided with earlier intervention. This must be the year to harness social media, its content and access to it, making platforms which support it more accountable to avert a bigger crisis.
AI is under the control of the same tech masters in the USA who control iPhones and other devices, and the software, social media, news outlets and therefore the information flow which is now barely trustworthy. They are seriously influencing people’s thoughts and attitudes, often subliminally, including children. Even the billionaire CEOs like Sam Altman, Musk and the CEO of Google, Sundar Pichai, say there is a real probability AI can threaten humanity unless it is controlled now by regulation. It is essential surely that we do not wait for the crisis to arise but take courageous control through Government regulation, sensibly prepared to ensure AI development does not run amok but is allowed to grow in an orderly way. British AI expert Stuart Russell issues this warning as do most AI experts. But Trump has banned regulation of AI – this could be his most dangerous decision yet for the world at large, not just the USA. If only regulation of the internet and social media had occurred earlier. Perhaps too, the anti-trust authorities around the world especially the FTC in the USA should be considering breaking up Facebook, Apple. Google, Amazon and others. 2026 is the time to recognise they are too powerful.
The lesson that dependency on malign forces is potentially fatal is leading to crisis management of epic proportions, such as the huge, required spending on defence over the next few years. Europeans made themselves dependent on China, especially Germany for its motor industry, and on Russia for fossil fuels. China has a monopoly on rare earths, vital to modern technology: European and American leaders watched this build up blind to the weakness they were embedding in their democracies. And now in 2026 expensive catch up is being played out and has to be paid for. The UK has now to face the overdependence on foreign microchips, and rare earths, especially from China.
That catch up manifests itself in Trump’s global policy – clearly to acquire fossil fuels and mineral, especially rare earth, deposits around the world. Hence his lust to take over Greenland, to make profit from Ukraine’s resources while it is dependent, and to buy influence in Africa and American access to resources such as in the DRC. Will not his next peace project, probably Sudan, be driven by his wish to do a deal on Sudan’s rich mineral resources? It is no coincidence that Venezuela has the world’s largest known oil reserves and Trump plans, he says, for U.S. companies to run them.
A major lesson has been that Trump does not observe normal rules – his bombings of Iran, the Houthis, Nigerian Islamists, Venezuelan drug boats and disregard for treaties go relatively uncriticised. His kidnapping of Maduro by invading Caracas may be justifiable but sets a dangerous example. As he gets away with disdain for the rule of law domestically and internationally there is a risk that 2026 could see an even wider expansion of his disregard for others. World leaders will surely be proved weak and cowardly for their kneeling before Trump showering him with gifts in 2025, recognising his narcissism but pandering to it, not calling out his corruption of truth and freedoms. Staying true to Western democratic values would have served us better and that is an urgently needed change for 2026: Trump’s megalomania cannot continue to be fed as it will lead to crisis. Americans must resist him, and Europeans must set the example.
Then at home the lesson of the Brexit saga, whatever way a person voted, is that it was allowed to create a divided nation, even damaging friendships and families. It damaged immensely our politics and status of politicians, many shamed by the disinformation process which prevailed, and refusal to accept democratic processes. And perhaps a singular lesson for Government is that they must start negotiating with a toughness notably absent to date: the lack of any commercial experience at Ministerial level not only prejudices their economic and business decisions, it also makes them look naïve and easy pickings when trying to negotiate. The EU has won every battle and takes cash from the UK in almost every trade discussion. Having a good trading relationship with Europe is desirable but it has to be balanced. Government has allowed the UK to become a puppet for Trump in negotiation: the much-hailed Technology Prosperity Deal, a partnership skewed totally in America’s favour, has even been suspended by the USA as it wants trade concessions elsewhere. The balance of the U.S. trade deal is heavily weighted to the USA. 2026 is the time to assert UK independence and values.
The Ukraine war is at a tipping point in 2026. Trump clearly wants to do deals to garner profits for the USA at the expense of Ukrainian freedom rather than defeating Putin. But Europe needs Putin to be defeated : Europe must take responsibility for Ukraine and spend resources accordingly and urgently. It may be too late as European leaders have vacillated for too long and still do but 2026 must be the time for courage and cost, removing the cards from Trump and Putin.
Climate change slowdown is still not embraced, sadly Trump again being a blocker. The UK needs a better-balanced approach given its relative insignificance as a carbon producer; but the burning of fossil fuels in much bigger nations must slow or else the crisis will be upon us. COP events have become almost meaningless. Leaders in 2026 have surely to face this. Immigration is a hot topic, but migration north to Europe as Africa heats up could be an existential crisis over the next 10 years or so unless measures are taken now.
And in the UK, perhaps the biggest lesson for 2026 is that Government must act according to its words. Growth and national security must now be given true pride of place and unsustainable spending has to be reined in. The PM says the UK cannot tax its way to growth but that is what actions suggest he is doing. 2026 is the time for Government to serve the nation not dogma.
AVOIDING CRISES
Learning from the past can help avoid crises tomorrow. Pandering to the likes of Putin and Trump will only end in painful tears. Toughness and courage are qualities in short supply but those are the qualities which will lead to better long-term decisions, even at short-term cost. UK, European and other democratic leaders have to exert these in order to avert disasters. Their example might then inspire individuals to do the same and improve their home nations. Crisis management has led to facing too many cliff edges. To avoid them in 2026 we must learn lessons of the past and be courageous .
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