THE ATROCIOUS CRIMES WERE NOT PREDICTED
Before Putin launched his criminal invasion of Ukraine on 24 February on multiple fronts, there had been a long and visible amassing of troops and armour and the whole panoply of war apparatus on the border with Ukraine. The U.S. and the UK especially warned for weeks of the probability of invasion, and when the time came its imminence, against a backdrop of lying denial from the Kremlin. Not all nations of Europe wanted to, and so did not, believe war was inevitably his plan. But nobody quite predicted the shocking barbaric mass murder and atrocities that have followed.
With at least a temporary withdrawal from Kyiv and some other parts of Ukraine, the devastation of Russian outrageous behaviour becomes more apparent by the day as new revelations emerge. The accusations of war crimes are universal among those who consider this invasion to be without any justification, and they are mounting every day, as if the systematic bombing and annihilation of civilian areas, residences, hospitals, schools and stations were not alone sufficient evidence of the criminality.
Mass graves of civilians have been discovered. The civilian death toll is unknown, especially in Mariupol. Executions of civilians by Russian soldiers now seem commonplace. Rape has been weaponised in this war too. The leaving behind of mines and bombs secreted as booby traps is designed to kill and maim, careless as to the victims, whether military, women, old men or children. President Biden now talks of Putin’s genocide, to deny Ukrainians a right to exist. And the bombing continues.
PUTIN KNOWS NO RULES
Putin declares his objectives are being achieved. At last, he admits that simply destroying cities, towns and villages was an objective (even if he now lies about his failed objectives). For now, the core aim has become the domination of the Donbas region, by which one can assume he means that, if he cannot control it, he will reduce it and the people still there to rubble. It seems he can certainly claim victory if he acquires this Eastern region and cuts Ukraine off from the sea. Mariupol is 90+% destroyed it seems, and by the time you read this article, this now dead city may be controlled by the Kremlin, but people are still resisting.
The Russian military build up in the West of Russia bordering Ukraine’s Donbas region continues relentlessly. President Zelensky, and Western nations, particularly the U.S. and UK, envisage an all-out concentration of Russian firepower, notably in multiple Donbas border areas. The Russians will outnumber the Ukrainian forces by a considerable multiple, it is said 5:1, but in terms of tanks and heavy weapons it may be worse. The flat terrain should enable Russia to advance more quickly than was possible on the road to Kyiv.
The flattening of cities, towns and villages is likely, certainly leaving a trail of civilian dead. More war crimes are on the way. With the precedent of what followed the previous build up at the start of the year, the whole world knows what to expect, unlike in February. It is a given that barbarism will ensue. This is made more certain by the fact that the Russian architect of the slaughter of thousands in Syria, General Dvornikov, is now in charge of the Donbas fight.
WESTERN NATIONS MUST NOT VASCILLATE ANY MORE
To date, Western nations have debated long and hard, almost anally as vested interests held back decision making over the level of military and other assistance to be provided, imposing limitations on heavier weaponry, such as warplanes, out of fear of pushing Putin into excessive escalation. Germany particularly has underdelivered, still in thrall to Putin’s oil and gas and appeasement. The EU nations have been variable in their response. It is notable that the home truth that Europe’s defence depends on the U.S.A. has been reemphasised by European inability to decisively act on its own doorstep, with USA by far and away being the principal provider of life-saving kit to a country thousands of miles from its shores in Eastern Europe. From the eulogy of president Zelensky he appreciates too the UK’s commitment and leadership in bringing other nations along. Surely now, the criminality and brutality of the Putin regime being unquestionable and being rubbed in the faces of all Western leaders, denial cannot prevail any longer. Macron too must surely condemn Putin instead of seeking personal meetings. Most important, for Ukraine to have a survival chance, all Western Democracies cannot refuse to provide offensive weaponry, such as aircraft, tanks and artillery, while expanding financial and humanitarian aid. The idea of being afraid of how Putin may react to that cannot be justified any more.
Some military experts predict Ukraine, if properly armed, can repel Putin’s forces in the East. But will not Putin need to be able, even through lies, to portray any outcome as his victory? If he cannot acquire the Donbas and make it part of Russia, his preferred option of victory may be to leave such a level of destruction, whether simply pulverisation by bombardment or chemical wasteland, so that Ukraine is effectively neutralised for years to come. The so far unified Western stance that he cannot win must stand rock solid, not waiver with shoddy peace offerings and keep ramping up its delivery of weaponry as long as Ukrainians wish to resist. That they are dying in defence of wider European freedom, as well as their own national survival and identity, is not to be forgotten
