UK politics needs a vibrant and respected opposition to keep Government on its toes. Recent elections have highlighted the lack of credible substance offered by today’s Labour party, and, on the other hand, the ability of the Conservatives to flex with the mood at least in England. Understanding and delivering on the voters’ aspirations is fundamental.
CONFUSED and DIVIDED LABOUR
“A London-based bourgeoisie, with the support of woke social media warriors, has effectively captured the [Labour] party… they have more in common with Californian high society than the kind of people who voted in Hartlepool yesterday”. This is the reported description of his party by Labour MP Khalid Mahmood, who recently resigned as Shadow Defence minister.
The recent elections which included a by-election in Hartlepool, the Parliaments of Wales and Scotland, Mayors throughout England, and numerous English councils among other posts, produced a few successes but numerous disappointments for Labour in England; continued success in Scotland for the SNP and for Labour in Wales; and greatly increased support for Conservatives in England. Most notable was the Conservative victory in Hartlepool where a 16% swing saw Jill Mortimer steal the seat from Labour with a 7,000 majority. The General Election in 2019 witnessed the change in the “red wall” traditionally Labour heartland seats where the stigma of voting Conservative was broken. This trend continued in Hartlepool. Even the London mayoral contest, where Sadiq Khan of Labour won, saw a hard-fought battle against a previously written off Conservative candidate. It may well be that those new London votes came from disgruntled, previously Labour voting, poorer areas of London, rather than the “bourgeoisie”.
The aftermath commentary in much of the press and broadcast news focussed on the question of “Labour in Turmoil” (Guardian) or “What is the point of Labour?” (Times) or “What does Labour stand for?” (Observer),with big question marks over the credibility of Keir Starmer, the leader, who says he takes full responsibility for the debacle. Perhaps this is not surprising as there was always the doubt that an ex human rights lawyer and Director of Public Prosecutions would have the talents required for leadership politics at the highest level. Reports reflect that Keir Starmer, in his messaging for the Hartlepool battle, was more concerned with the trivia of the debate around the funding of wallpaper for 11 Downing Street and to discredit Boris Johnson than the interests of Hartlepool men and women. In an election in the UK to major on the faults of an opposing personality rather than real issues never succeeds (remember Theresa May on Jeremy Corbyn?).
The overview consensus seems to be that the party remains caught between two polarised approaches: the traditional Left wing view of the party as the champion of the working class at a time when the idea of working class is really a yesterday concept – there are people who work in all sorts of sectors, which is no longer largely the factory floor labourer abused by a capitalist grandee owner; and even the Left leaners are dominated by “the London-based bourgeoisie” who perhaps despise Brexit or for whom minority causes (identity politics) define their priorities. At the other pole sit the Blairites – of course Tony Blair was the last Labour leader to see success at a general election. But is it progressive and fruitful, in a world which today is a far cry from the days of the Iraq war for which Tony Blair is best remembered, to hark back to an age long-gone and for that section of the party to bear the Blairite label? Reconciling these polar positions and everything in between is a Herculean task. In the foreseeable future, without major change, the prospects of Labour achieving electoral success by their own efforts may be minimal, and perhaps they will have to rely on another Conservative implosion – but that is always entirely possible!
DELIVERY, DELIVERY, DELIVERY
For any Government the challenge is to deliver on the promises made: there is never perfect delivery but there must be some.
There remains a growing groundswell of Conservative support in England. Their recent electoral success is the more remarkable, as this is a mid- term Government. It has operated almost entirely during a pandemic which caught out most of the nations of the world, totally unprepared for this unknown phenomenon, and which has thrown more curveballs in a year than are normally experienced in a full 5-year term. Is this groundswell due solely because there is no effective opposition or are there realities which have swung the voters? Andy Street has served West Midlands well, and Ben Houchen has done likewise in Tees Valley, both traditionally Labour regions: both were re-elected as Mayors with increased majorities, demonstrating that delivery gets noticed by the voters.
BREXIT – having been elected to deliver Brexit, this Government completed it on time. It then promised a trade deal by the end of 2020, which opposition said was impossible, and it was delivered. Whether the “deals” made were as good as they could be or a disaster as some would say can be debated forever, but is there any point? Perhaps voters simply see delivery and that now the UK can move on and should do so determinedly without wistful backward dreams.
PANDEMIC VICTORY – whatever errors may have been made tackling a completely new enemy in the Covid virus, the public approval rating of Government handling of the pandemic has been mostly positive, waxing and waning with various temporary setbacks or successes. The ultimate strategy was to hunker down until the vaccine cavalry arrived, a gamble as many decisions have been, but so far, a winning gambit. In 2021 the public, beaten down by the virus, has seen week by week the wisdom of the vaccine strategy and, so far, highly successful delivery. Arguably the UK can be said and seen to be dealing with the pandemic in 2021 as well as and perhaps better than any European nation – whereas the naysayers in 2020 exulted in portrayal of the UK as the laggard idiot under Boris Johnson. If vaccine success continues as now, the public will remember delivery and victory not the failures. Even if there are setbacks, given recent success, the chances are that people will largely trust Government decision-making on the pandemic at least for 2021!
NHS, JOBS and the ECONOMY – the Conservatives in 2019 branded themselves as the friend of the NHS, traditionally Labour’s mantra. Perhaps not very credible at the time. But during the pandemic the NHS has received an open cheque book: the resources have been delivered – maybe there has been waste on the way, but people remember delivery. And in the pandemic the party of “austerity”, as opposition branded them, has spared no expense in shoring up the economy and saving jobs through furlough etc. The economy is now commonly expected to be the hare not the tortoise in recovery as the EU undergoes a double dip recession. That is not to say long term things will be all rosy but immediate expectations are positive. Traditional Tories bemoan the profligacy as if the Conservatives are the new Labour! In the medium to long term there is a lot to sort out and the challenge is gargantuan, but for now there has been some delivery.
LEVELLING-UP AND OTHER PROMISES – it is fair to say that the levelling-up promise has barely begun to be actioned, but the pandemic can reasonably be blamed for that. Houses need to be built. Balance between the gifted South East and London and other parts of the country needs restoration as promised. And in London itself the huge disparities of well-being needs levelling, which the London Mayor cannot deliver. The jury is out and UKGOV’s current popularity could stand or fall by this standard. The challenge is considerable as finances to resist the pandemic are stretched to the limit. The biggest issue is around jobs and wages: UKGOV will only progress that if employers can be enticed to the regions needing a rebuild, and so UKGOV depends on building a framework to entice those employers. Levelling up will only succeed if people are willing to grasp an opportunity to level themselves up: UKGOV and Boris Johnson must set a framework, such as new skills learning, which gives that opportunity. Cash handouts are not the answer. It is only respite to give the thirsty water, but teach them to build a well and they have real hope.
PERSONALITY, TRUST AND HOPE – to survive for long, the last thing a political leader can be is dull. A proportion of ardent anti-brexiteers will never forgive Boris Johnson for the “no “vote in the EU referendum, and for delivering Brexit, including many big figures in or once of his party. Many media commentators, certainly some at the Guardian, Observer, Financial Times, and the BBC are similarly opposed: forcing Boris Johnson out seems a priority for them. Others regard his Etonian privilege, selective disdain for rules and regulations which get in the way, his ability to shift his stance with the prevailing wind, and his private life, as demonstrating a moral vacuum. Even Dominic Cummings pushes that line! The self-righteousness and obsessiveness of such critics can undermine their message.
However, does perhaps the average person see a character they can relate to? Or, if not relate, sympathise with? Is the fact he struggles financially, “begs, steals and borrows” to stay afloat, something to associate with? Humour is such an attractive trait and is his hallmark, and his mischief gets him into scrapes. And he is an optimist. Few successful leaders are humourless, miserable and pessimists. Voters do not condemn all failings, which are human characteristics, and if they are inclined in favour of a personality may forgive peccadillos. At a time when Westminster politicians are held in low regard, is it surprising that an interesting Boris Johnson is a personality, which is memorable among an unmemorable barrel of apples? Some promises have been delivered at least in part, especially the winning vaccines, and further promises offer hope. For these reasons Boris Johnson survives and thrives. There are intellectual arguments to undermine his successes, but many voters have little time for intellectual constructs.
FUTURE SUCCESS
It is possibly the case that the majority of English voters want a fair chance with a decent job fairly rewarded, a secure roof, good education and so opportunities for their children, an opportunity to develop and improve, health and holidays, and to make an honest contribution to wider society. Many perhaps wish to have pride in their country. These simple aspirations surely need to be fed to give a hopeful future. Failure to do so will mean electoral failure. Many influential people, especially among those who see themselves as elite and see the average voter as not very bright, want to see UKGOV and Boris Johnson fail, but if they do fail, so too will the UK be failing.
