THE FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE FOR JOE BIDEN
The Economist of 23 January 2021 wishes “Good luck Joe” to the new President of the United States, Joe Biden. It is sympathetic to his facing at least 4 crises – the pandemic, described as a public health disaster together with a sputtering vaccination drive; economic devastation with high unemployment – a recession; two thirds of children not at school in person and bitter divisions over racial justice as part of an extreme national unification challenge.
These are all domestic issues, and Joe Biden will be throwing eye-watering sums of dollars at the problems. First his $1.9 trillion rescue measure to tackle Covid-19 (CV) and its consequences, including tens of billions for a vaccination programme and a cheque of $1,400 per person to help individuals through the economic pain. He wants to increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour. And then there will be a multi trillion -dollar recovery, rather than rescue, package. Whether all his domestic and social desires will get through legislative processes is to be seen, and whether he can reach through to Trump devotees and heal political wounds is unknown. He is sworn to try.
The Economist closes with “For a President to navigate any one of these crises (fractured Union; recession; pandemic and racial strife) would be gruelling. To navigate them all at once will be a formidable job. Yet that is Mr. Biden’s charge.”
The United States has been an absent leader on the international stage and Joe Biden is committed to uniting with allies and taking the lead. This cannot be left for a lot later but will have to be gripped from the off. The relationship with China, which is seeking to topple the U.S. in influence and establish its global empire by whatever means it chooses, dominates Joe Biden’s foreign challenges. His team have accused China of genocide of the Uighurs, recognising the massive human rights clash of values. But the interdependence of the U.S., and indeed most developed Western nations, with China for key goods each way sits uncomfortably with the need to call China out. The President also has to face up to Vladimir Putin sniping and sewing discord across the globe, including, like China, through cyber warfare.
But in all these problems the U.S. is not alone or need not be.
THE FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE FOR ALL EUROPEAN LEADERS
Take the EU, the bigger EU nations and the UK. All of them face crises: in the form of the pandemic and its consequences- none of them , like the U.S., has CV under control and, apart from the UK, all have sputtering vaccination programmes; also economic disaster across the EU, in varying degrees in individual countries, and in the UK, including recession; children are not in school; disunity is a significant disease – especially the divide in the EU between richer Northern nations and the rest, and popular disgruntlement – and the UK faces a threat of the division of its Union; and while racism by colour is relatively less a European issue, challenges such as immigration, democratic dilution such as in Hungary, dissent and hate sewn through social as well as mainstream media, all threaten community of purpose creating uncertainty.
Taking the Economist’s analysis, for any leader of any of Germany, France, Italy, Spain or the EU as a whole or the UK, to navigate any one of these crises would be gruelling. To navigate them all at once will be a formidable job. Yet that is Angela Merkel’s, Emmanuel Macron’s, Sergio Matterella’s, Pedro Sanchez’s and Boris Johnson’s charge. It would be good to see a similar level of empathy for them from the media as the Economist is showing to Joe Biden. They all need all the help they can get.
The EU is a massive economy, but its strengths are unevenly spread. Achieving agreement from 27 countries on its limited recovery fund was like pulling teeth. That fund is a mix of grants and loans, and many commentators consider their overall bail-out resources are inadequate for the purpose. The EU nations do not speak with one fiscal voice. The EU has difficulties bringing anything like the financial firepower the U.S. can to its problems. Reliance on Germany as the financial powerhouse inevitably creates stresses: some member states need handouts of vast proportions, and the treasury of last resort in Germany needs, for at the least domestic political reasons, to extract austerity and a price from recipients. Similarly, the UK continues to apply financial sticking plaster incurring huge debt to mitigate the damage of lockdowns, and it remains to be seen how that debt will be funded eventually.
The developed Western nations too must suffer the fall-out of the conflict between the U.S. with China and Russia, while also having to navigate their own relationships with these countries: facing trade dependencies clashing with human rights and other values. The inclination of the EU, led by Germany, to placate the dictatorial Xi in China, as evidenced by the recently touted agreement on mutual investment (yet to be implemented) and to placate the other dictator, Putin, in reliance on energy from Russia, plays with difficulty against the approach Joe Biden may prefer, which perhaps will be a united Western front. The UK’s stance too walks a tightrope, especially regarding China, where its takeover of Hong Kong, defying the treaty, clashes with the UK’s response of offering a safe haven to millions of frightened Hong Kong residents. In addition, both the UK and the EU each have to square their values with the Uighurs’ genocide when dealing with China, as does the U.S.
All Western Leaders face the same formidable challenges.
COMMUNITY OF CRISES SUGGESTS COMMUNITY OF RESPONSE
As well as the issues outlined above, there are other problems similarly faced, such as the global distribution of vaccine and control of CV, international travel standards and so on, let alone the numerous conflicts current around the world.
The temptation is for countries to look more inwards than outwards, protecting the political populace which carries the votes. Given the interdependence of nations, the solution clearly lies in the U.S., the EU and the UK acting with common goals and assisting each other in their community of interest. Vaccine development exhibited a high degree of international cooperation, but it is less clear that vaccine distribution will. The only way to credibly confront China and Russia will be a united front. That will be so much easier to maintain if, as well as through established cooperative institutions such as NATO, these developed nations, together with Canada, Australia and others, can easily work to simplify and liberalise trading relations rather than seeing everything through a competitive economic prism.
Formidable challenges, like those faced by all the leading developed Western world countries, are often better overcome through partnering and mutual help rather than adversarial grandstanding.
