Is the media going to decide the fate of Ukraine as it seems to decide most political outcomes in a feeble political West and a militarily neutered Europe? Or will it be left to Donald Trump?
A DOOMED UKRAINE?
Ukraine is almost certainly doomed to defeat by Russia. A few months into this war, Western experts and commentators were clear that a war of attrition would result in a Russian victory of sorts. Its sheer size in every sense when compared to Ukraine, its carelessness for loss of the lives of its own citizens and its sheer brutality and propensity to destroy and murder as convenient under Putin were perhaps sufficient factors alone. But most important for Ukraine is its sheer dependence for economic aid and military support with weapons and training on its Western Allies, which is in itself dependent on political leaders of variable strength and reliability. That strength and reliability is tied so much to the public feeling of allied countries, variable nation by nation, and that in turn is tied to media fickleness. European countries’ general move to right wing politics, with so far only a tinge of fascism, may make it impossible for the voices of absolute resistance to Putin to be heard.
A FORGOTTEN UKRAINE?
Readers of the weekend press over 5 and 6, and 12 and 13, October will have found in the Times, Guardian, Daily Telegraph and Observer very little on the war in Ukraine. Notably too there was little on broadcast news. It was amazing too that for example the news highlights on Sky on the news ticker tape included a possibly trivial report of Lancashire police apologising for accidentally putting down an XL Bully dog, which may give insight into prioritisation. That light coverage has continued ever since.
It must not be forgotten, and we should be reminded every day, that Ukraine is in an existential war against the most evil of enemies, and the future of Europe depends on the outcome. Putin and cronies, having been thwarted in their desire to conquer the entire country, are now hellbent on destruction of its economy and infrastructure and murder of its people, and stealing as much of its land as it can get away with. And Ukraine is in effect fighting the war the whole of Europe once dreaded, and, if they lose, that war may be merely postponed. Ukrainians die in their thousands while the rest of Europe cowers, helping but holding back to have its cake and eat it, for example still using Russian energy and materials and so funding Putin’s murder. Sanctions seem to have been easily nullified.
The war between Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah on the one hand and Israel on the other dominates Western media and worry. To a large degree most people agree that Hamas and Hezbollah depend on and are the proxies of Iran. And Iran is sworn to genocide of Israel as well as death to the West, such as the USA and the UK. Is there not perhaps a suspicion that the Hamas invasion of Israel and the inevitable war that followed was the brainchild of Russia and Iran? Certainly, it has been of massive assistance to Russia in distracting both resources and Western media and so public attention away from Ukraine’s plight. Surely Europe and NATO cannot fix everything and can only manage one war, and Ukraine is its existential threat, but Western media majors totally on the Middle East mess.
Add that to both political tiredness and the European recognised inability to match Russian volumes of weaponry, as well as populaces very inward looking to their domestic agendas like immigration, and Ukraine is looking more and more isolated in terms of lack of wholehearted support, with some like Germany wishing the war would go away. And, if anything today, reporting about the direction of the Ukraine war more or less assumes that a negotiated settlement with Ukraine conceding territory stolen from it is the likely outcome. A far cry from the early consistent declarations of no concessions made by Ukraine’s allies. It is possible however that Putin sees it to his advantage to forego negotiations, expecting to see a greater capitulation if Donald Trump as President in the U.S. softens his support for Ukraine.
THE WEST EXPOSED
Putin may have been surprised by the early strength of the NATO response to his aggression, and its unity. And NATO has been strengthened by the addition of Finland and Sweden. But NATO is only as strong as its strongest members and their political will. NATO countries say they will let Ukraine join NATO, but not yet. Could that commitment not get easily negotiated away, or rather simply discarded for pragmatism, a possible peace is dangled by Putin, albeit on his terms? President Zelensky sees immediate NATO membership as a key plank in defeating Russia, but that membership will not be granted while the war is still going on.
The USA has been the core weapons provider to Ukraine, with Europe far behind, Germany and the UK being its main contributors. But the weapons stockpiles of the Western alliance have been exposed as woeful. Their armed forces, the USA, Scandinavian countries and now Poland aside, have been exposed as under financed and under manned and under equipped. The EU’s speed of response is hampered if not neutered by Putin sympathisers in its ranks, such as Orban of Hungary. These sympathisers grow in power as Austria and Germany, as well as Italy and the Netherlands, move to the far-Right political spectrum in sufficient numbers of voters to be very concerning, and politicians adjust accordingly.
Europe is unable, and perhaps unwilling to defend Ukraine without the USA, which bears the brunt, unfairly. And the people of the USA have a reducing patience for a European war as encouraged by Trump, the President elect. And in the USA the incumbent Biden remains a drip feeder of assistance to Ukraine, the latest weapons package having been delayed by months through U.S. political whimsy, slowed by the fear of mad escalation by Putin who threatens accordingly preying on that fear. But Joe Biden is now history. Future commitment is not certain. And weapons are provided on terms, for example non usage of long-range missiles into Russia. Fear in the USA and Europe of Putin retaliating excessively has held back the West from total help for Ukraine. And so, Ukraine fights with one hand tied behind its back. And Putin feeds on and fuels the fear, sitting on his nuclear arsenal.
Meanwhile, Russia easily evades the limited Western sanctions imposed as other countries assist it in doing so. Even India does not come out against Russia, and China and Iran and North Korea openly assist it. And still Europe buys energy from Russia! Just recently a BRICS nations summit was hosted by Russia, with attendance by 36 countries not just its ally China, but also India, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, and others including Turkey, itself a NATO member. The Secretary General of the UN was also there, despite the UN condemnation of Russia and the criminalisation of Putin: the world’s hypocrisy and lack of values merely highlights the perils which it confronts. North Korea also has sent troops to fight for Russia. And the longer the Ukraine war goes on, the more the mood amongst its allies veers towards a negotiated peace, meaning concessions to Russia. That will mean victory for Russia and an invitation for it, once it has rearmed itself, to go after other ex-Soviet bloc countries, like Estonia and Latvia, and even Poland is at risk.
While the rest of Europe slowly but inexorably waters down its military commitment, at least Poland has taken upon itself to rearm and face the threat as have the most Eastern of the NATO countries, the ones most under threat. Poland is growing its economy and is not afraid to devote 5% of its GDP to defence: probably what all European countries should do but they lack the leadership to make such hard decisions. Meanwhile, Putin licks his bloodthirsty lips.
UKRAINE BLEEDS AS THE WEST BLEATS
Ukraine is short of everything but has shown incredible resilience against an enemy which the whole of Europe combined has always feared it could not combat. But destruction of its sources of energy, the killing and wounding in droves of its men and women in combat and through wanton criminal bombing, the displacement of perhaps half its 40 million people, and sheer exhaustion from a battering by the cruellest and most evil of enemies, means attrition will inevitably lead Ukraine to defeat and a peace which concedes to Russia. And it looks like that is what the West wants. Look at the UK which obsesses with its own, by comparison, minor problems, and Germany looks inward as does France. The USA is being required to sustain Israel as well as Ukraine, while Europe does little to help. The UK, depressingly, will not commit to a real increase in military capability. If China chooses to be belligerent in the East, for example concerning its threats to Taiwan, only the USA is able to resist. If it is President Xi’s ambition that his legacy includes a Taiwan reunited with China, what better timing that in the interregnum handover to a new President Trump? The USA may have to choose prioritising its allocation of military and economic aid, and Ukraine may be the loser. And Europe makes no sustained effort to really help the situation. Would Donald Trump turn his back on Taiwan? The global pack of political cards is teetering.
With serious reservations, because Western politicians seem so weak, constantly bickering and bleating, it remains for the serious media to save Ukraine and the West. The media needs to apply such pressure about the seriousness of the Ukraine plight that politicians are left with no choice but to ensure with all their powers that Putin is defeated and Ukraine can rebuild safely, and Eastern Europeans can sleep easy unafraid of being next on Putin’s death list. For example, recent reports of the inability of the UK to defend its airspace or even to train helicopter pilots due to lack of engineers illustrates Europe’s malaise, and the UK is Europe’s strongest military power! Europe’s military frailty must be sorted out as the number one priority and the media can help.
The Middle East needs constant focus but not at the expense of Ukraine. Israel must not be broken by terrorists and genocidal antisemites from Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, and the Muslim community should be helping Israel surely? If European peace is to be restored on a lasting basis, a unified approach across politics and the media needs to be constantly and daily publicised, being one which reduces Putin and his acolytes to an evil to be exterminated and extols the virtues of Western freedoms. These are under threat, and apathy and short-term self-interest are perhaps the biggest enemy. The media can change apathy into resistance, but do they care enough about Ukraine other than as another glorious news story for their news “shows”?
