With restaurants and bars able to open from 4 July and Summer holidays becoming a possibility, whether at home or abroad, people have the chance to put the UK on a road to optimistic prosperity.
INDEPENDENCE DAY – WHAT ARE THE RULES?
It is almost July 2020. 4th July has become “Super “ Saturday or Independence Day in the UK, being the day that pubs, bars, restaurants and cafes, and other establishments where people gather, such as Cinemas, can open again after lockdown. But there are guidelines to follow designed to make places as secure as is reasonably possible against Covid-19 (CV). The leisure and hospitality sectors of the economy face ruin without some Summer business, and could wait no longer. In general the daily economic damage of lockdown is too great. And the UK Government (UKGOV) is declaring that the criteria have been met to enable the third stage of the relaxation plan to be implemented. There remain fears that perhaps CV is not sufficiently subdued , and it is easy to say that, but those in charge have had to make a pragmatic judgement which is not without risk. It is encouraging that since earlier relaxation measures such as more shops opening, infection rates have continued to decline to a low 6.7 per 100,000 people.
Since 23 June when UKGOV announced the new relaxations to be effective in July, there has been a cocktail of reactions – confusion, relief, complaint and enthusiasm. While the 2 metre distancing rule is still being encouraged, and clearly medical and scientific advisers to UKGOV would rather it stayed in place as safer, one metre plus is to be permitted. The reality is bound to be that one metre plus will become the normal rule people adopt, that is if they observe distancing at all: the majority will but some will ignore it altogether. To keep to the rule will likely be harder where alcohol is served as consumption increases.
What is the plus in one metre plus? It is more mask wearing but, other than on buses and trains in England, it is a bit unclear when masks are required. The scientists having denied the preventative value of masks for so long, means many will resist wearing them unless absolutely required to do so; on the other hand some people will be so nervous and, needing a sense of security, will wear them even when it is pointless! Also, standing or sitting side by side or back to back are safer than face to face and will be encouraged; dividing screens in some scenarios, such as restaurants, may mitigate risk.
And still today, 6 people can meet outdoors, but nobody can meet socially indoors (there are of course exceptions). The plethora of UKGOV “secondary” legislation, enacted by emergency executive powers, and guidelines make the “rules” now, and to come, complex indeed. It is unlikely anybody can recite them. A single adult living alone can join a support “bubble”, in effect another household. And then come 4 July, change partners yet again, as 2 households can meet together and new guidelines will operate, but always keeping distance.
Perhaps by 4 July, the UK will have reached a point where the rules result in micromanagement: it is hard to see why a cinema can open but a gym cannot, subject to safeguards; at weddings the father of the bride cannot escort the bride, and hand washing is needed before and after exchange of rings. The efficacy of the rules will be hard to assess and mass compliance is perhaps unrealistic. In fact, each person must, as always, assess the risk to themselves of any activity, with care for others: accounting for age, ethnicity, health generally and special conditions, the place of activity and its CV secure measures, and simple appetite for risk in all the circumstances. At least now, at last, it seems to have got through to the media and most people that no activity in life is risk free. And there are no guarantees. The risk of infection has been decreasing daily. The “R” rate, based on science and so inspiring awe at least initially, has perhaps been given more credibility than it deserves, especially when it is a national measure. It is of little value or persuasiveness to a young person in a part of England where there have been few cases. When it is hard to know all the rules as they are no longer simple, perhaps there are 3 easy basic things to do which people are being encouraged to do and will cover most risks:
- Wash hands as regularly as possible, and hand sanitize when washing is unavailable, and touch one’s face as little as possible in between
- Keep a sensible distance whenever practicable, being more cautious of close- up indoors than outdoors
- In a potentially crowded place wear a mask and keep moving (not being close to the same person, not being a member of one’s household, for more than 10 minutes).
MASS GATHERINGS – CITIZENS NOT HELPING THEMSELVES
UKGOV has had one message at least which has been consistent through the last 3 months: mass gatherings should not take place. But the last few weeks have seen a series of incidents where a minority – arguably careless for the majority – flouted the requirement to avoid these gatherings, and thereby increasing infection rate risk for all, the danger to life that entailed and risk of economic damage to livelihoods as well as general wellbeing.
Perhaps it is understandable that protest demonstrations through many a City under the banner of “Black Lives Matter” assumed greater importance than CV worries, and some felt a need to demonstrate their disgust at racism. Were they right?
Perhaps it is understandable that, now Summer is here, on beautiful sunny days beaches across the UK and public parks were heaving with crowds in the open air: especially young people for whom CV poses almost no risk at all. Were they right?
Perhaps it is understandable that supporters of Liverpool Football Club massed in their thousands in their city in celebration, thinking winning the Premier league for the first time in their history overrode all CV protocols. Were they right?
It is certainly not understandable that violent protesting in London or street or house parties in Manchester and elsewhere have led to dozens of police being wounded, some seriously; to the deliberate destruction of public property; and that those enjoying the beaches and parks dump tons of personal rubbish in these public areas for the rest of society to deal with. The Guardian reported 50 tonnes of waste left on Bournemouth beach on a single sunny day: not just bottles, cans, cartons, wrappers, plastic of all kinds, but also human body waste – perhaps partly because local authorities have for some reason found no way to keep public toilets open. A Times article by Clare Foges on 29 June gives the problem of people’s carelessness about litter and dumping a good airing. Does it demonstrate a selfishness contemptuous of other citizens, and those who deliver public services, running through a minority in the UK, at a time when community has been at the forefront of the CV resistance. Perhaps the rather depressing and shocking images of rubbish strewn areas will waken the good in those who seem to assume they are entitled to scatter their waste for others to clean up.
The UK police are simply unable to enforce the rules that all these incidents described above entail. Society depends on citizens adopting civilized behaviours which show regard for others, and defeating CV totally depends on citizens believing that the behaviour expected is right in the circumstances. That belief is perhaps teetering. Policing CV has added new and thankless, and arguably pointless tasks to the police work agenda. And today some sponsors of Black Lives Matter call for defunding of police forces: presumably the aim is to dismantle all semblance of order in the current structure of society. Fortunately UKGOV politicians will not kneel to that demand, with Labour leader, Keir Starmer, also firmly rejecting it.
SUMMER HOLIDAYS PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
The Armageddon of unemployment and bankruptcies confronting the leisure, hospitality and aviation sectors in the UK – and indeed in much of Europe – was given considerable airtime in the last few weeks. The balance towards saving the economy over excessive caution with lockdown has tilted seriously recently. Coinciding with a continuing reduction in CV infection rate, politicians needed courage. When Boris Johnson announced among other things the new one metre rule to enable certain businesses to reopen, and indeed schools to operate more realistically, at last getting back to work and business functioning in the Summer became possible. Not perfect, but surely a cause for a change of mood to one of optimistic opportunity to advance forward rather than so many sitting on furlough. It was disappointing that , for example, the BBC at the daily briefing Q&A could only ask “Whatever happens, Prime Minister, will you take responsibility”, a ludicrous question designed with a single purpose. Of course whatever happens is not UKGOVs responsibility: the answer that Boris Johnson and UKGOV take responsibility for their decision was correct. And later that evening the programme presenter of the BBC’s “Outside Source” described as extraordinary the “plan to open bowling alleys not schools”, illustrating more sad judgemental low quality journalism. There remains a sense that some journalists see UKGOV as the enemy, not that the CV fight is a tough struggle in which all are together and where progress should universally be seen as a good thing.
The mood music and mutterings in the lead up to relaxation had been that it was necessary and had to happen, putting the future of the UK in the round front and centre, and balancing the risks in favour of the UK getting back to business. Many were relieved. Some complained the lockdown had gone on too long, and others, whose businesses still were not freed up, complained of inequity. But now the UKGOV messaging has moved to looking forward , not cowering in the dug- out.
But for air travel and tourism there is considerable cynicism around the approach: the persistent 14-days quarrantine period for those arriving in the UK is hard to rationalise, especially when there are so many exceptions. It depends on voluntary compliance of course, though police are expected to perform random inspections. But the police are totally overburdened as it is. This is not an appropriate task diverting them from real crime control. The “air bridges” with nations with low infection rates, judged for CV safety by a traffic light system, with those cleared green getting quarantine exemption, will bring some relief for UK summer holiday makers and for the UK tourism industry as foreign visitors arrive, as well as to airlines. But the UK needs to open up to the world as a whole and be seen to be. A system other than quarantine is required, perhaps testing in combination with temperature checks and other things will be better. This requires an internationally accepted system across countries, which is hard to achieve right now but is something where the UK could lead.
CITIZENS PSYCHE – GETTING COMFORTABLE
Most shops and personal services (such as hairdressers but not nail bars) will be open from 4 July. However, even if the shopkeepers and shopping centre operators can manage the return of customers in numbers, and provide a reasonably CV secure environment, that is all redundant unless citizens return to the streets and spend. The West End of London is open for full shopping, but few serious shoppers have come yet. There are practical difficulties, such as usage of public transport still discouraged. But, since shopping is part of a wider experience for many, the opening of bars and cafes etc may bring more footfall. Local authorities need to open the streets for outside eating and drinking, which , if weather permits, could bring people in. Tourists arriving will provide a boost. The Summer is unlikely to be a bonanza though, and, for most in retail and leisure, survival rather than prosperity will probably be an adequate result.
A publicity programme by UKGOV, businesses and the media to change the citizens’ psyche from fear to acceptance of some lowish risk and commitment to living life to the full, within tolerable limits, is needed. But there must be consistency. It is too easy for naysayers and those who wish to emphasise impending doom to dampen positivity. The health providers must get the confidence of citizens in the test and trace programme, showing it can work. The recent local spike in infection rates in Leicester has meant local lockdown continues there. Proving that can be controlled will be vital. Another National lockdown is simply an unaffordable option.
But Premier League football is back, so all should be well. And as always in the UK some prolonged good weather will make all the difference to the UK psyche, well-being and optimism. And optimism and self-belief are fundamental to success.
