Revitalising the economy is essential and becomes daily harder the more that caution is emphasised, undermining the confidence to take a balanced view of risk. Citizens and UK Government (UKGOV) need to be pointing in the same direction, energised to get the country back to work, and for that to occur UKGOV needs to be, and be trusted to be and seen to be, in control. That control is severely threatened. “Maximum caution” is not an energising approach. Maybe UKGOV should be altering its approach to emphasise that the engines are fired up to release lockdown restrictions, and solve issues, and adopting sensible but practical precautions to reduce risk. How can this be done?
SILENCING THE UNDERMINERS
UKGOV and Boris Johnson, though elected with a big majority, have a lot of opponents: not just political parties, or opposition leaders, but institutions and commentators and academics, in large degree due to Brexit or perhaps in some cases personal grudges or disagreements, or simply passionate dislikes. These “Underminers” simply wish to see UKGOV and Boris Johnson fail, and they grab every opportunity, fair, real or otherwise, to further that aim. This is normally fair game: but the UK is in a unique crisis of epic proportions. It had been hoped that Covid-19 (CV) would not be used and mobilised as a political tool, and despite expressed sentiments to the contrary, that hope has been dashed. The blame game is everything, and the sole target is UKGOV as if it is somebody detached from the rest of society, and unfortunately it is sowing disunity. The following are illustrations:
- In the Financial Times of 22 May, Martin Wolf in an article about the risk of no trade deal with the EU by the year end took the chance to declare “We already know the Government is incompetent” citing the response to the CV pandemic as confusing and confused, except for Rishi Sunack and the Treasury. Numerous other prejudicial comments establish his intent.
- The Guardian takes every opportunity to turn news coverage into an attack on Boris Johnson and/or ministers generally, even with headlines such as on 30 April declaring Boris Johnson’s new-born baby a “Political Symbol” (not in a positive way!). On 28 April, an article by a scientist Anthony Costello attacked the lack of direction of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and undermining of that body continues. And of course, their journalist apoplectic when interviewed by the BBC about Dominic Cummings going to Durham, desperate to bring him down.
- The BBC is no friend to Boris Johnson or UKGOV. That PPE supply was beset by logistical difficulties is clear and there may have been UKGOV errors. However, that issue was relentlessly pursued by BBC TV news coverage to denigrate UKGOV. When testing targets looked out of reach, the pleasure oozed from broadcasters. Now they turn their negativism to a clear anticipation that testing and tracing will underachieve. And today no better example than the glee which greeted the Guardian and Daily Mirror revealing that Dominic Cummings spent isolation in Durham to ensure his child was cared for. He may or may not have a reasonable excuse. What can only disgust is the pleasure taken by newscasters (and journalists, not just the BBC) pawing through the rules hunting a breach, and anticipating the party atmosphere if they can see another head roll! This is particularly sad as BBC TV news could be a force for real galvanisation of society to optimism rather than blame game.
- Jeremy Hunt craves publicity at every opportunity to describe how UKGOV could have done better, particularly as to preparedness: which is strange when one considers how the NHS was largely “prepared for pandemic” on his watch as Secretary of State for Health.
- The Science has now become a political football. Several scientists, such as John Lee in The Daily Mail on 17 May, have made clear that the science around CV is in reality weak, and that the “R” rate is a meaningless criterion for judgements of policy. Modelling, which lays behind SAGE advice and others’ conclusions, is hardly a science at all and is notoriously variable, as indeed different Universities and other institutions publish their varying contrary conclusions based on their different models. SAGE has now come in for such a pasting from various quarters, including a so-called rival panel led by David King with a mixed bag of scientists as members: he declared of course he was not attacking the scientists on SAGE, but immediately proceeded to do so. That new panel seems remarkably short of new ideas but has served to undermine SAGE and so the UKGOV. The damage this is doing to decision making at UKGOV level is hard to say, but perhaps the blame philosophy enveloping observers and the media will have the effect of making any person with any degree of responsibility for decisions or action in the CV crisis incredibly cautious, if not frozen, including members of SAGE.
- When Boris Johnson announced in early May the slow easing of lockdown and the tests to be satisfied, the disagreement with the new approach by Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland national governments was disappointing in one way but correct in another – they had to decide what they deemed best locally. However, those who implied Boris Johnson was cavalier in approach were again the Underminers unnecessarily creating disunity. Many of the measures for easing they have now declared are at least very similar to those adopted by UKGOV.
There are countless examples of Underminers citing courses of action “if only” taken sooner or on a different path which would have saved thousands of lives, or even would have made lockdown unnecessary. UKGOV has to counter and silence the Underminers if it is to wrest control of the situation and give citizens the confidence that focus must be on pursuing the energising of the economic and social life of the country.
CHILDREN RETURNING TO SCHOOL
This is the burning issue and perhaps serves as the barometer of the ability to get the UK moving positively forward with real drive. It is the mirror to measure the fear and caution levels of society.
UKGOV wants a gradual return to school, and certain other voices are against any return probably before September, and many are waverers. Fear is rampant and is exploited where that suits. Different regional authorities take different views, Unions are at loggerheads with UKGOV. Each interested party cites safety as paramount, but each has a different standard for safety. The key people to convince are the parents and at the moment, while there is total diversification of opinion among influencers, many parents are confused like rabbits in headlights, and it is not surprising. Most influencers perhaps agree these propositions:
- Children’s interests come first;
- Children are better off at school and absence of school is seriously damaging to their development;
- Vulnerable children are less safe outside school;
- The children most damaged, and often the most vulnerable, are the most deprived children;
- Children barely suffer at all if they catch CV;
- Minimising the spread of CV by children is desirable (some sensible and doable precautions needed);
- Precautions have to be practical;
- If lots more children do not return to school, the economy’s ability to revive will be seriously damaged, as many workers will stay away and the cost to the taxpayer rises accordingly, with millions jobless or otherwise adversely affected.
Teachers, other school staff and parents somehow need to have their fear of catching CV from children reduced to an acceptable level, and to be convinced that CV itself normally is not terrifying, so that risk is in perspective. That is UKGOV’s challenge.
HOW TO RESTORE CONFIDENCE AND ENERGISE THE MOOD
Boris Johnson and UKGOV missed the trick and opportunity in early May to get UK in the mood to break out of locked up lockdown. Is it best maybe to admit that and change gear?
UKGOV perhaps has to be and be perceived to be in control, decisive and committed to as rapid a revival of the economy and social life of the UK as is humanly possible; brave to take measured risk; balanced; transparent and honest with the public, sharing its thinking and why it rejects alternative options; no longer preying on fear to get compliance; and perhaps most of all, inspiring, and delivering on commitments and driving to find solutions.
Unless everybody stays at home forever, there will never be a guarantee to avoid a second wave, but NHS has plenty of spare capacity; that should be accepted doctrine. And UKGOV needs to deliver on enough kit of all necessary types being available. UKGOV must deliver on testing and tracing – that may perhaps quieten Underminers.
Is it perhaps time to get real about the science? It provides no answers, rather more like educated guess work which can be used in decision making but it cannot guide decisions. Science can provide help but obsessing with a national “R” rate is misleading. Science perhaps needs to take a back seat in prominence, as it is not for scientists to decide the catch-22 trade-off between CV consequences on some individual lives, against the long-term nationwide damage of lockdown. A few thoughts:
- The two-metre rule will hold progress back as it is impractical. Of course, 4 metres would maybe be safer, but useless, and one metre would be more practical. It seems that SAGE reviewed it and advised the 2-metre rule should stay in the belief that blurring it could be confusing. That is not science, it’s purely over cautious fear. Who would not understand one metre? Who does not understand “stay alert”? Two metres renders expanding school attendance very difficult; conducting normal operational business in many cases impractical, and neuters public transport. WHO and many countries adopt one metre. This is a call to be made by politicians, not scientists, and on any basis, they need to come up to the plate with sense, not cower for fear of blurring. One wonders if, but for Underminers, SAGE would be bolder.
- The UKGOV daily news conference format and content has perhaps outlived its usefulness and if anything is counterproductive. The messaging is “baby steps”: that is not just unambitious and uninspiring, it is for babies. The content is a series of repetitive fixed texts, delivered mainly without enthusiasm or drive. Platitudes bore the listener. The graphs and tables serve little purpose now in their level of detail: the message they give could be summarised succinctly and more imaginatively.
- The tone is one of severity and doom. If moving to energise the people to activity, then positive ideas and progress, inspiring hope and freedoms should be in the foreground. The opposite to now.
- The upshot of current messaging is plodding along. It will take time to pull people out of their slumber at home.
- Why is it that there is no comparison made between the damage being done by CV directly (that is some people getting sick and some even dying) against the other damage by lockdown and UKGOV spending taxpayer money like a running tap , businesses dying, the likely future unemployment numbers, the damage to health (excess deaths and pain and suffering due to people not getting needed healthcare), the damage to wealth all round, the reduced ability to impact poverty and level up inequality, and the prospects for the future. Those need to be explained in simple stark terms to citizens who think the risk of CV outweighs the collateral damage. Then people have a choice. Is that not the choice that UKGOV is making for the public with every day it applies “maximum caution”? When faced with that choice, the citizen’s thinking and decision-making becomes informed. Common sense behaviour -hygiene, handwashing and keeping apart sensibly – can be sub messages always but not the dominant.
CHANGING THE MOOD MUSIC
Confidence in UKGOV is being undermined. It is being portrayed, fairly or unfairly, as too often failing to deliver. But the mood music can be changed:
- Delivering testing for all people soon is vital. Delivering testing and tracing effectively is also vital. UKGOV can then be seen as delivering again, just as with the Nightingale hospitals initiative for example.
- Should UKGOV change its tone to accelerating positive steps out of lockdown, for example aiming for solutions to reignite the travel industry, and testing may be the answer?
- Positive communication delivered by ministers who can inspire is required to replace the sombre: respectfulness for suffering is essential, but focus perhaps should always be on revival.
The mood maybe has to be can-do.
Why not challenge citizens to assist in testing and tracing by asking all to keep a simple diary of who they meet when, and where they visit when, so that, if they test positive, contacts can be identified immediately. That would engage all citizens as participants. Would it be better if Underminers stop to think and help the national effort, celebrate successes and be part of the solutions, not indulging in politicisation of CV.?
Changing the mood music will make lockdown a thing of the past and confidence in the future the focus.
Sherbhert observes that in lockdown:
- The Queen went to Windsor to live
- The Cambridges went to Norfolk to live
- Prince Charles went to Scotland to live
- Boris Johnson went to Chequers to recuperate from CV
- Neil Ferguson did not leave home
- Dominic Cummings, Chief adviser to the Prime Minister, went to Durham to self- isolate with CV so that his child could be best cared for.
Who had the reasonable excuse to leave home? Let’s move on to things that matter.
