The week starting 9 November was memorable: vaccines for Covid-19(CV) are on their way, if not quite here, and there has been a major advisory shake-up at No.10 Downing Street, which was generally seen as a shambles but may be a desirable opportunity.
THE CAVALRY
The cavalry is on the way. This was Boris Johnson’s characterisation of the announcement by Pfizer and BioNTech that they are at an advanced stage of a successful vaccine (PBV) for CV, to date 90% or more effective, way above expectations. There remain hurdles for PBV to jump before public veins receive this jab, and producers and regulators are giving strong assurances that corners are not being cut, despite the record time in which PBV has been produced, such assurance being essential as a failing vaccine could undermine all future vaccination programmes.
This announcement produced much-needed optimism and hope of light at the end of lockdown tunnels, notably in the UK. Champagne is not yet to be ordered. Boris Johnson rightly sought to keep reactions in perspective given there remain uncertainties, urging people not to relax their guard or reduce respect of restrictions, suppressing his natural optimism, though warmly welcoming the news. Of course, his caution drew from the usual quarters criticism of negativism on his part. However, financial markets reacted positively. But there was also criticism of Pfizer for announcing success so early before PBV has been the subject of peer review. In addition, possible drawbacks to PBV have been highlighted by commentators and scientists, for example Sir John Bell and Jonathan Stoye in the UK emphasising that PBV requires two jabs some 3-4 weeks apart; and it needs to be stored , including while being distributed, at around minus 80 degrees centigrade until use. That must complicate the logistics of distributing millions of doses around the world and organising the administering of them: perhaps the average GP does not keep a fridge of that capability. The cost due to the temperature requirement will be enormous and PBV may simply be unsuitable for use in certain developing countries. That cost is on top of the actual cost per dose, 2 jabs probably to be charged at a massive £29.47p in total.
Sir John Bell and Jonathan Stoye are associated with the Oxford University-Astra Zeneca potential vaccine (OAZ), which by comparison is expected to cost £2.23p per dose, a fraction of PBV. With some 200 vaccines under development around the world, experts are hopeful that several vaccines will emerge, including the OAZ. Moderna, an American company, have also announced trials success of their vaccine, at a similar stage as PBV and which is based on the same science as PBV, but without needing to be preserved at an extremely low temperature. It is however more expensive than PBV. OAZ has a different basis. And their results followed soon after Moderna: so far, with a 70% effectiveness, and with no incidence of serious illness, OAZ offers great potential. There is a possible 90% effectiveness with a half dose plus one as opposed to two full doses. The financial arrangements put the interests of humanity first: they ensure that during the pandemic OAZ will be provided at cost, and then permanently at cost for low to middle income countries. The three named vaccines now must satisfy regulators round the world, and the strongest assurances are being given that no short cuts will be taken.
Assuming a vaccine becomes available early in 2021, the UK Government (UKGOV) has indicated it intends to prioritise delivery of it to the oldest first and then by age groups. It has ordered far more OAZ than PBV or other vaccines, and in total, with its orders from other vaccine hunters, UKGOV is one of the biggest up-front buyers of vaccines so far with existing orders probably sufficient to vaccinate the whole of the UK; and the UK should benefit considerably from that anticipation and courage to invest early in this procurement as well as in the sponsoring of vaccine development. UKGOV and numerous others have pointed to the massively complicated and voluminous exercise of vaccinating the populace quickly. Given how NHS and Public Health England have struggled with the huge logistical challenges presented by the pandemic to date, it is comforting that UKGOV has promised the assistance of the armed forces in the jabs roll-out The challenge is exacerbated by the irresponsibility of anti-vaxxers bombarding the public via social media with misinformation and vaccine scaremongering: if, as is suggested, hostile States are contributing to that confusion, that could further sour international cooperation. A well-organised campaign to ensure the public understand the truth about vaccine will need orchestration.
The next few weeks may produce really exciting news of vaccine reality on which UKGOV’s strategy against the virus depends. Will that, with the potential highlighted below, hail a rejuvenation of the UK in 2021?
OUT WITH THE OLD AT NO.10
Inspiring PBV vaccine news was followed by what, for many commentators and opposition, and some conservative, MPs, was possibly even better news on a different front: the departure of Dominic Cummings (DC) from No.10 Downing Street as lead adviser to Boris Johnson. He was preceded by his colleague Liam Cain, head of communications, in what is being portrayed by various media as a power struggle around the Prime Minister, centred on the proposed appointment of a Chief of Staff, and as a total shambles. By shedding allies on whom he may have depended for protection, has he shot himself in the foot?
Knowing little about Lee Cain, perhaps there is little reason to be concerned by his leaving the team, particularly as the last few months have often been punctuated by inconsistent, ill thought-out and premature communications from No.10, often preceded or forced by leaks and followed by forced clarifications. Then DC followed him so swiftly. A media circus has followed. It may be reasonable to infer there were embedded factions around the Prime Minister, competing and conflicting, with DC and his followers on one side. That side, who were core to the Brexit project, seem to have lost.
It is hard to get to the truth of who at the top of UKGOV is doing what to whom, as many or all who pretend to know perhaps have a personal agenda. While DC was core to achieving Brexit, and he clearly has determination and skills, his achievements at the centre of Government since Brexit are less obvious. It is evident too that he polarises, makes enemies easily and cares little about doing so. People management and compromise seem low on DC’s list of abilities. His departure may be a significant loss in some ways, for example if it means that the sharpening and reform of the Civil Service gets dropped as a project. But his seeming alienation of Conservative MPs has damaged the standing of Boris Johnson who cannot survive ultimately without support of the parliamentary party, and so his departure was a necessity. As when any person disappears from the limelight, it is likely that things will move on quickly, others will take over and he will be a small piece of history, as most people become. This tumult needs perhaps to be turned to UKGOV’s and the country’s advantage.
Enemies of Boris Johnson, whether in his own or other political parties, or among those still seething over Brexit, or those who dislike him for example simply because he is divorced more than once, have pounced. Quotes have streamed forth, many from “a source in Downing Street”, or “an ex member of the cabinet” or “ a senior MP close to the situation”, often unnamed, reinforcing how this infighting is more of the chaos and incompetence which is the signature of this government, in their eyes. Just as before and during the general election there are it seems campaigns to discredit Boris Johnson as a person and have him replaced. It is hard to know how orchestrated it is. But it is not any more obvious today than it was a year ago who would be a desirable alternative candidate for the role.
Most of the regular columnists at the Times are of a concerted view: Clare Foges, Max Hastings, Rachel Sylvester, Matthew Parris, Iain Martin, Philip Collins, Simon Nixon, to name some, regularly use epithets such as “incompetent, bungling, weak, mendacious, blundering, indecisive”. The Observer is inevitably opposed, and Andrew Rawnsley on 15 November exemplifies the venom: “insecure, lazy, ill-disciplined, procrastinator, weak, foolish, duplicitous, stumbled, u-turn, disaster” all appear in the one article about “Now that Rasputin Cummings has gone, who will grasp control of Tsar Boris?” Some predict he will be gone as Prime Minister by mid-2021 or by 2022. Have the Boris haters spread so much bile that his reputation and standing with both his party and the British public cannot be restored? Or is he so fundamentally flawed that he will always sew through ineptitude and character faults the seeds of his own political failure? However, has in fact he yet had a chance to succeed?
Boris Johnson is apparently behind Keir Starmer in the public polls now. But it must be remembered that a resounding majority of Tory MPs considered him the best available for the job only a year ago, as did the British public. His nature was no different then and no less apparent for all to see. The pandemic has thrown upside down all major economies and life across the globe and clouds most judgements on anything. It is easy to characterise UKGOV and so Boris Johnson as a failure, by lighting on and dissecting selected events, and decisions made, through this viral year. But most Western Governments can be subject to the same criticisms, some worse than others, but nobody is smelling of roses. There is no reason to suppose than any other politician or group of politicians in the UK would have fared any better or worse, and certainly no evidence. The public will appreciate that it is easy for the armchair critics who carry no burden of responsibility to throw brickbats. Equally, a lot could have been different and better, with hindsight: as long as lessons are learnt it is perhaps inappropriate to be over-critical.
Is now the opportunity to turn fortunes and the UK around? Many have observed that the Prime Minister has the chance to reset his Cabinet and his advisory group and agenda, especially if the trade deal with the EU is delivered, as he promised he would deliver – though of course the EU can thwart that. If vaccines become increasingly real and start to pass the regulators’ tests, that will be a booster jab in itself for markets and business optimism, and maybe the glass half-full will replace the glass half-empty forecasters. If Boris Johnson can lead the CV discussion and avoid lockdowns; demonstrate action to implement his levelling-up agenda; and be seen to care through action for ordinary people, for the left-behind and for the ambitious hard-workers, embracing innovation and encouraging wealth creators; and markedly improve communication, so that voters’ trust is at least not lost but is perhaps renewed, positivity and then advancement may take root. The support and good judgement of Rishi Sunak and the Treasury to invigorate the UK economy and not burden it with tax and austerity will be required. While a massive bounce is unlikely, can an unemployment debacle be avoided? A lot of ifs, but would it not be a good thing if a dynamic forward-looking attitude emerged with UKGOV and the populace generally aligned?
Resetting perhaps will involve surrounding himself with able and experienced people with sensibilities for the various interest groups who need to be brought and kept onside, and Boris Johnson himself showing, if he is capable, decisive leadership. Journalists say a common criticism of him by those who know is that he tends to agree with the last person who spoke to him. If that is true, then he is doomed probably to fail…. unless that last person is consistently wise. On the contrary, if he can set a dynamic policy agenda consistent with the promises made before the pandemic, combined with demonstrably firm decisions, and if his new right-hand people are capable and dedicated, much-needed decisive delivery may result. Indeed, demonstrable delivery, not just speeches, will grow confidence and trust. Severe lockdowns and the morale and financial cost they bring surely now need to be shelved, with the vulnerable the subject of special protection made possible by mass testing and better protocols for them.
It may be that there are more people quietly wishing the Prime Minister success than there are vociferous executioners, and wishing to see, with that success, the UK also standing firmly on its own moving positively forward. It would be good to see institutions, influencers and businesses backing a drive to succeed.
