This article identifies a few subjects to watch out for as they may balloon as time goes by or which perhaps should be kept in mind and not forgotten. Given the unpredictability of everything about Covid-19(CV), left field will bring the unforeseeable.
CHINA – WILL RELATIONSHIPS BE RESET?
China is appearing with increasing prominence in the CV story. CV of course began there in late 2019, but it is said, was kept under wraps. Many question China’s behaviour since then, its lack of transparency, its manipulation of data, its misinformation programme and the integrity of its authoritarian ruling party. An article by Niall Ferguson in the Sunday Times of 5th April asks some good questions of their regime and closes with “And as long as a fifth of humanity is subject to the will of an unaccountable, corrupt and power-hungry organisation, with a long history of crimes against its own people, the rest of humanity will not be safe.”
The Henry Jackson Society, it is reported, is suggesting China could be sued for $billions for its breach of international agreements for its behaviour around the CV issue. Not the real world probably, but a sign that storms are brewing. A UK Foreign Affairs Committee suggests that China’s disinformation campaign is costing lives. Not long ago China’s military was reported to have stolen the data of 13 million British citizens.
China is now said to be flooding social media with propaganda as to its largesse in helping the world. China’s relationship with countries around the world will be a continuing source of questions, as governments seek to take the spotlight of blame off themselves. As the world screams out for resources, perhaps watch for China buying its way into acceptability. The U.S. relationship with China is not the only one to watch. Will the world’s chosen naivety of convenience towards China continue or is resetting on the way? There is a risk that distrust of the Chinese regime will mistakenly lead to malevolence towards Chinese people. It is hoped that does not materialise.
HYPOCRISY – ERRORS OF JUDGEMENT – JUST THE START?
Catherine Calderwood, the once Scottish Senior Medical Officer, showed poor judgement in spending weekends at her second home in Fife, while exhorting the public to stay at home. This led to her humiliating public apology and then, as social media and broadcasters and journalists poured opprobrium and scorn upon her with relish, to her resignation. She was branded a hypocrite. Yet, who in their job, however senior or in the public eye, has not committed an error of judgement? The judgemental and blame culture make forgiveness in such a situation impossible. Perhaps however, even if it cannot in her case, forgiveness should appear more prominently in the options of reaction to a mistake, especially when there is heartfelt remorse. If that is not possible, it would be an advance if commentators could tone down the shrill incredulity that somebody in high office can make an error, particularly when under great pressure. It was a relief to hear Nicola Sturgeon, when questioned on the incident, say that it must be recognised that everybody makes mistakes, and that in these unprecedented circumstances all in charge are doing their best in good faith to make good decisions, including herself.
How many questions will there now be around politicians and others about their own compliance with their distancing and isolating rules, such as by the journalist to Matt Hancock “Do you have a second home?” It is not hard to guess the next question in the “catch you out” game.
And footballers are not immune. Kyle Walker, of Manchester City and an England international, exhorted his 1.7million followers (maybe more than tune in to the Scottish Government daily briefing) to stay indoors and socially distance; but he, it is reported, spent £2,200 for two ladies to visit him. He apologised for his actions! His club may have fined him. But he will probably be on the next team sheet. Regrettably there may be more errors of judgement, hopefully not so serious as to be unable to survive the hypocrisy of recrimination, with death by social media cuts and broadcasters’ intolerable self-righteousness, delighting in others’ failures.
INTER-NATION COMPARISONS – SOCIAL COMPLIANCE AND ENFORCEMENT
Analysis of CV effects has seen the graph and the curve become commonplace on TV. Comparisons of different nations’ ways of tackling CV, their infection, testing, survival and death rates are daily fare. Successes and failures are sometimes compared. Fiscal measures and outcomes may soon be getting regular graph treatment too.
Another area of comparison could be the behaviour of citizens in response to instructions or guidelines, whether forced or voluntary, and enforcement methods. The UK depends on consensus – there are not enough police and military to force a rebellious public into submission: use of bullets would destroy the UK basis. Other European nations tend to have greater depth of national guard or riot police, e.g. France, and their usage is common. A report in the Times of 7th April described French police using tear gas and rubber bullets to break up gatherings of youths on a housing estate in the outskirts of Paris, hitting, among others, a 5-year-old girl.
As the UK lockdown tries patience, those with gardens and space have it relatively easy. It is unsurprising if, for example, younger generations, cooped up in small overcrowded apartments, take to the open air. UKGOV must keep the parks open. Police must continue to hold back and their “persuade and educate” approach should prevail. Perhaps comparisons of social compliance and authorities’ reactions will populate the graphs in time. How the UK fares against others may be telling.
CLIMATE CHANGE – IT HAS NOT GONE AWAY
Climate Change remains the existential issue of our time, but it has been ousted temporarily and almost totally from the media consciousness, and so probably the public’s agenda for now. If the impact of that is to slow the world’s commitment to carbon reduction, that will be a bad thing indeed. While the UK burns little coal, it fires the Chinese and Indian industries. The world cannot afford to lose even one year of dedicated effort in this endeavour. So too in environmental pollution. The critical climate change conference due to be held in November 2020 in Glasgow has been postponed: was that really necessary at this stage? Of far greater significance is the resources being devoted to mitigate the effects of the CV pandemic. Resources are finite and the programme to stop climate change requires very serious long-term investment – to what degree will that be prejudiced by the long-term damage of the CV remedies? This should become an issue of focus and balance in decision making now.
But some good news, as reported in the Times of 2nd April: scientists from 16 Universities have published a recovery plan for the health of the World’s Oceans to be restored by 2050. Some promising facts evidence that progress is possible: humpback whales emigrating to Eastern Australia have increased by 10% a year, reaching now 40,000. Grey whale numbers have increased, as have Northern Elephant Seals, as hunting bans are effective. Marine Protected Areas are increasing and working. Will this new recovery plan get international approval? At an estimated cost of $20-40 billion per year will it, or can it, ever be implemented?
As the world is in lockdown pollution may fall, but will that compensate for other great losses? How can the new benefits of lockdown, such as much reduced traffic, be locked in? Phase out the motor car? (see Sherbhert https://sherbhert.com/isnt-it-time-for-a-new-uk-strategy-for-the-passenger-car/ ). Climate change worries surely must become part of the decision-making process around the price of CV.
FOOTBALL AND OTHER SPORTS
Premier league football clubs and players are not, for the time being at least, a glamour subject. The spotlight has fallen on clubs such as Tottenham, Newcastle and Norwich who have laid off support staff so as to benefit from the UKGOV 80% subsidy scheme for wages. No problem there, except the same clubs continue to pay their players, who can now stay in bed on Saturdays, full wages. Those wage rates are in some cases tens of thousands a week. Other clubs such as Liverpool were ready to follow suit, but Liverpool had a change of heart in the face of public outrage. That players continue to receive wages that are off any sensible scale in the current circumstances jars just a little. Hopefully, there will be change, to the credit of clubs and players.
The effects of CV are being seriously felt in all sports. Rugby Premiership players are furloughed. The very rich Formula 1 is threatened. Tennis and golf are suspended, the Olympics postponed. So many less well financed sports face real money problems. This will be a big ongoing issue, and perhaps a complete recalibration will occur across the sporting world.
FORGOTTEN TRAGEDIES – ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL
Sherbhert (See https://sherbhert.com/covid-19-a-balancing-act-for-government-and-all-citizens-part-2/ ) has previously highlighted that daily media focus on CV developments, tragedies and cost, has distracted attention from ongoing tragedies such as the death of millions of children from malnutrition; the plights of millions in the Yemen and East Africa, to name but three. There are certainly many more disasters of epic proportions getting little attention. Are authoritarian and corrupt regimes taking advantage of the world blindness to further human rights abuse? In obsessing with CV, maybe care is needed to ensure other tragedies do not lie forgotten.
CV news from developing countries may well become more prominent. In the less developed world, even India, there are potentially massively costly tragedies waiting to happen if CV takes a widespread hold, in terms of lives and basic existence. They have poor health care systems, and little or no money in the bank, or which can be borrowed. Corruption abounds. In poor countries, populations are often younger and maybe less prone to CV, but not if they are unhealthy for lack of good food, or due to disease such as HIV. Hot weather may or may not slow CV down. But unless developed countries look globally and strategise to minimise damage across the world soon, there may be disasters beyond anything Europe or the U.S. will experience, waiting to happen. There is a risk that such activity to protect the less well-off will be postponed to follow resolution of CV problems in the developed nations – it cannot as that may be too late in a world of nations so interdependent and linked together: it surely must be simultaneous. In the current climate, it is a major leadership challenge for any nation to carry its citizens along with an expensive plan to assist others, thousands of miles away.
There are so many issues to watch out for, but probably the one that will make most headlines has not yet been thought of.
