China and Hong Kong are the issue of the day. But, one might be forgiven for thinking that the big story of global concern this past week was a drive to Durham – The Guardian of 30 May illustrates the point with “Breaking news – How Cummings breach dominated the headlines” followed by pictures of all The Guardian’s last 6 days’ front page headlines about Dominic Cummings. Although some other newspapers were less obsessed, Covid-19 (CV) is making UK reporting very introvert. Dominic Cummings might have been guilty of a non-serious breach of CV regulations, according to Police, but still some commentators insist on his execution. The story is now worn out. The UK media should move on, whatever damage has been inflicted on the UK Government (UKGOV).
HONG KONG IN JEOPARDY
The big story should have been the actions of the Ruling Party of China, led by Xi Jinping (Xi), as the Chinese National People’s Congress decided to impose Security Law on Hong Kong, defying the treaty in 1997 establishing its autonomy until 2047, with the principle of “one country , two systems”. The reaction of the Hong Kong people highlights that their freedoms are now to be removed, with dissent as decided by the Chinese Government (CHGOV) to be outlawed. World reaction has been muted. Donald Trump is defiant, having also a wider agenda, proposing the withdrawal of Hong Kong’s special status among other things. There are some 350,000 holders of UK British National Overseas Passports in Hong Kong, and UKGOV has announced that this could be extended to 3,000,000 Hong Kong residents – China’s rulers threaten reprisals. While the UK, U.S., Canada and Australia have issued a Joint Statement of condemnation, the EU is holding back, as are Germany and France. Perhaps the developed world needs to demonstrate unity of disgust at the proposed termination of any semblance of independence and freedom in Hong Kong?
IS CV TOO MUCH OF A DISTRACTION?
Are Xi and CHGOV using the World’s preoccupation with CV to implement opportunistically a strategy to hasten Hong Kong integration and extend its global dominance contest against the U.S.? In the same week, reports tell of:
- Huawei arrangements funding, and also UK taxpayer funding, certain UK Universities’ research, which could be providing to China access to sophisticated technology for military purposes
- Hundreds of Chinese troops crossing into India’s territory
- A top Chinese General, Li Zuocheng, chief of the joint staff department, declaring China’s intention to use its armed forces to make Taiwan part of China, if peaceful talks fail – of course sabre rattling around Taiwan is not unusual.
These come on top of ongoing well publicised issues and controversy around
- Donald Trump’s accusation that the WHO is in China’s pocket and withdrawing U.S. funding
- UKGOV’s intention to allow Huawei a material involvement in the UK 5G network, objected to by the other 5 eyes’ countries (U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand) as risking Chinese interference in UK security, with the U.S. particularly strident on the risk posed, and itself taking measures to limit Huawei’s activities in the U.S. Possibly UKGOV will now revisit this issue.
- China’s establishment of island bases in neighbouring waters, and its increasingly threatening naval presence in the South China Sea
- The Muslim Uighurs in China have long been the subject of considerable reporting of alleged maltreatment, including the acknowledged incarceration of maybe up to a million in what Xi and CHGOV describe ominously as “Re-education Camps”: the Western world has intermittently but with no great passion expressed disapproval, and it is believed the Islamic world has been silent on the topic
- The China Silk Road project overland to the West; China’s huge investment in African countries accessing vital minerals, and its purchasing of influence around the world illustrate its growing global advancement
- Allegedly (CHGOV) sponsored entities or its intelligence services create dislocation through misinformation and regularly cyber-attack other countries, acquiring data (such as the details of perhaps 18 million UK citizens), or seeking to steal technology or disrupting operations
- The fluctuating trade relations and negotiations with the U.S, combined with political propaganda, by both nations, for the last two years at least has created instability and uncertainties with significant global economic implications.
Apart from U.S. pronouncements and some tariff impositions, there is little unified resistance to or meaningful vocal criticism at democratic government level, though plenty of commentary that democratic nations need to be resilient in not kowtowing. The lure of Chinese money, especially after the financial crisis, has been a weakness which could result in long term disastrous implications. The supine positioning of western governments could prove dangerously damaging.
ADD ON CV – WHAT EFFECT WILL THE FALLOUT HAVE?
Then there is the noise around CV which, despite occasional media diversions to the contrary, it is widely accepted it seems started its journey around the world in Wuhan, China. That noise raises big issues around for example:
- The openness, accuracy and timing of CHGOV disclosure of information about CV, including the possibility that it covered up its prevalence
- Why did CHGOV stop domestic flights from Wuhan to stop the spread of CV, and yet allow international flights to continue?
- The degree of misleading propaganda published about CV by CHGOV
- The dependence of the world on China for the supply of many critical medicines, such as antibiotics, and PPE and other strategic products
- Having delivered the CV baby, is CHGOV using the chaos and economic disasters to increase global influence?
How far does CHGOV want to go?
There are calls from UK commentators and politicians that it is in effect time to reset the UK’s relationship with China’s rulers and so China itself. That would include reducing dependence on critical goods, such as medicines, imported from China; reduce Huawei’s involvement in the UK; prevent Chinese involvement in the re generation of the nuclear power industry in the UK; no longer to be silent where human rights violations are concerned; to resist the takeover of at least sensitive UK businesses by China connected entities; to no longer be Nelsonian in observing the intentions of China. This may mean a mature acceptance that no longer will investment from China be available for the bailing out of UK financial problems. Should Taiwan now finally be recognised internationally as a truly independent State?
But any resetting perhaps needs to be a consistent policy shared with allied nations, such as the other G7 countries. Are the richer countries of the democratic world capable of the cooperation needed to fight CV and also to rein in CHGOV’s global ambitions, suffering at least the financial cost of so doing on top of the cost of CV?
Maybe the proposed degradation of Hong Kong’s democratic remnants will provide the answer.
Will the flagrant consignment to the bin of the Hong Kong Treaty be the last straw to galvanise global resolution or will appeasement prevail? Possibly, if the Western world fails in its duties to Hong Kong , that could be the final green light to CHGOV that it has won, and the U.S. has lost, and a sign that frightened frailty is truly embedded in relevant governments, unless some genuinely courageous leadership emerges from democratic nations like the UK. Without such leadership, what will be the fate of Taiwan?
