Barely a day goes by without numerous news items or commentaries in news journals in the UK on China, its treatment of people, and its relationship with the rest of the world. This is probably the global issue of the day. How China’s, or rather the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP), ambitions and the free world’s reaction to them play out could be determinative of the level of violence or peace across the globe, and the success or failure of the global economy. Some headlines in the first quarter of July illustrate the point:
- “Britain is under attack from a meddling and bullying China”, Times, Edward Lucas, 4 July.
- “Weak, divided, incompetent…the West is unfit to challenge Xi’s bid for global hegemony”, The Observer, Simon Tindall, 5 July.
- “Can we ever tame the dragon?” Sunday Times, Max Hastings, Sunday Telegraph.
- “Beijing sends enforcers to silence Hongkongers” Times, 4 July.
- “Polite but inflexible resistances is best response to China” Daily Telegraph,9 July.
- “Uighurs seek genocide charges against Beijing” Daily Telegraph, 8 July.
- “China is greatest military threat to U.S., says Pentagon” Daily Telegraph, 9 July.
- “Allies punish China over Hong Kong law and Uighur abuses” Times, 10 July.
- “Trump is a hypocrite on Beijing, but China has to be condemned” Guardian, 11 July.
These examples do not even mention the strategic trade talks and acrimony between the U.S. and China. Then there are numerous articles on Huawei and its involvement in 5G network development, particularly in the UK, from which they are now to be barred: in turn the Chinese Ambassador in the UK has threatened serious reprisals. Similarly, the CCP threatens more reprisals if the UK continues its proposal to offer 3 million Hong Kong residents a home in the UK. The CCP issued similar threats against Australia for its support of Hong Kong citizens against the new security law imposed by the CCP. As that law becomes enforced in Hong Kong and arrests continue of those who resist or oppose the CCP’s edicts, and with the CCP applying their writ globally against any person they consider subversive of China, the countries of the world are dividing into 2 camps. This is illustrated by the fact that 53 countries in the UN Human Rights Council supported China’s new security law though it was condemned by Western Nations. It is reported that perhaps 45 of the 53 are to benefit from the Chinese Belt and Road project from East to West. The Times reported that 40 of the countries were “autocratic” and rated “not free” or “partly free” by the global freedom index Freedom House. This group of supporters includes many oppressive and corrupt regimes. In these 53 countries, Chinese influence through at least economic power is evident.
THE CCP AND THE UK
The UK is a good example perhaps of a different kind of strategic influence bult up over time by the CCP and through different lines of attack. The coalition Government led by David Cameron, with George Osborne in the vanguard, hailed a “golden era” of UK relations with China: following the financial crisis they saw China as a deep pocket which could provide investment monies, much needed to stimulate the UK economy. They cultivated a warm relationship and China saw and took a strategic opportunity. It has to be assumed ,however, that any company of Chinese origin or sponsored by China, is closely aligned with the CCP: perhaps it is the case that simply continuing successful operations in China is not possible without their approval, and it would be damaging not to comply with the CCP’s requirements. The involvement of Huawei, China’s world leading telecoms company, in the UK’s telecoms infrastructure has been assiduously developed over many years, so that they are an integral part of the 3G and 4G systems: and so they were to be involved in the 5G roll out. However, pressure from UK allies and from security intelligence reports and politicians’ outcry, and from increasing mistrust of anything related to China, with a perceived and some say identified risk of CCP “spying” via Huawei, means the UK Government (UKGOV) is terminating that involvement.
China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) is a major financial investor in the building of the Hinkley Point C Nuclear Plant, and it proposes not just to fund but to use its own technology to build a nuclear reactor at Bradwell, and so far, is approved by UKGOV to do so. Arguably it is again too risky to have such a Chinese company intimately involved in the UK’s strategic energy supply, especially in a technology as sensitive as nuclear. But, as with terminating Huawei in 5G, to remove CGN from this beneficial involvement would be immensely expensive. Maybe, that would prompt an arguably desirable revision of the nuclear energy programme in the UK which may be better focused on smaller, less expensive, nuclear reactors, but more of them. And now TikTok of China is attracting attention in several Western countries, including the UK, with regulatory concern over its increasing influence. In economic terms, the UK, like other countries, has become strategically over dependent on many Chinese products, it is thought over 200: as shown during the pandemic, medical products are a good example, such as Personal Protective Equipment. That dependence probably must change and UKGOV will have to support development of new pharmaceutical and other medical product capability in the UK and find more diverse sources in friendly nations. The Cameron coalition clearly misjudged the implications of embedding Chinese led, and so CCP influenced, ventures into the UK’s economy and institutional structure.
THE HIDDEN AND NOT SO HIDDEN HAND
Recent reports have highlighted “The Hidden Hand: Exposing how the Chinese Communist Party is reshaping the world”, a book written by Clive Hamilton and Mareike Ohlberg. Its UK publication was legally challenged by the 48 Group Club, reported to be a London based group of influential people cheerleading for China and Chinese style capitalism, which capitalism is of course controlled by the CCP. This group perhaps is a good example of the more indirect ways China acquires influence, almost subliminally: Tony Blair and George Osborne have been associated with the Club but not as driving forces. Its members promote China in the UK. Some people seem now to be distancing themselves from it.
The Hidden Hand’s central theme is that the CCP wants its type of authoritarian approach to spread globally, and it tries to undermine countries from within. The lines of attack come through economics – investment and trade dependence highlighted above, buying businesses, especially technology, without reciprocity; then, through lending and the power debt has over the debtor; then through social means and the academic world – some 120,000 Chinese students, more even than in the U.S., are at UK Universities paying substantial fees, without which several might face ruin. In addition, Chinese enterprises sponsor academic projects, potentially accessing new know-how. Then through the media, sponsoring or spreading propaganda, true or false, and helping disruptive forces create mischief. And through political pressure, as well as pure military power – for example gradually dominating the seas of Asia, seeking to oust the U.S.. Major influence is being acquired and exercised in numerous countries around the world, according to the book. In order to reduce its global leverage through control of key products will require huge investment and will take time. On 14 July, for example, China announced that it may cut off supply of essential rare earth minerals from Lockheed Martin in the U.S. – those minerals are important in the manufacture of high-tech defence equipment: China apparently has an almost global monopoly over such minerals, whether mined in China itself, or for example through its ownership of mines in Africa. In addition, China manufactures 95% of the world’s antibiotics, it is said.
These monopolies are a great illustration of how the free world, in its pursuit of efficiency and so the cheapest sources of products, has blindly allowed a dependency on China to grow in core product areas, ignoring the wider strategic issues. While China has been strategically positioning itself into a controlling power over core materials and supplies. Is the Western world capable of weening itself off this state? Is it not astonishing that the U.S., which now publicly considers China its greatest military threat, depends so heavily on Chinese imports, including military components?
Much of the CCP’s activity is hardly hidden. But their cyber activity is harder to spot, stealing data: apparently, it is reported, Chinese hackers stole the entire security clearance data base for the American Government. The CCP clearly loathes free speech, the bedrock of Western and other democratic countries. So, in Hong Kong the new law is designed to suppress it. The brainwashing of the Uighurs is perhaps an extreme example of the CCP’s disregard for those people who do not tow the party line. In addition, certain Uighurs now want Beijing rulers to be charged with genocide. The response of the International Criminal Court to the demand for an investigation may be an indicator of the degree to which so called independent bodies will be resistant to CCP ambitions.
THE NECESSARY RESPONSE
Many a commentator, whatever their political persuasion, urges resistance to China, or really the CCP, and their encroachments, invasions and bullying, in pursuit of domination. If, as some declare is the case, China needs the Western world as much the West needs China for certain goods and services, then these countries have some leverage. Appeasement of the CCP will be doomed to failure as appeasement always is when applied to bullies. China’s position has been weakened worldwide for its perceived duplicity around the spreading of CV, as well as its wilful disregard for the Hong Kong treaty. Its intentions of dominance are now clear for the world to see if it wishes to have realistic eyes open.
The EU, and most notably Germany, has so far been the slowest to unite with other countries in intolerance for the CCP treatment of Hong Kong citizens and total disregard for the treaty which guarantees Hong Kong independence. On the other hand, Japan is reported to be increasing its military budgets in the face of Chinese exercising of military muscle close to its territory. The Western world together with the free nations of Asia particularly, needs a concerted approach, to apply pressure and constant resistance: no single country alone, apart from the U.S., can unilaterally and meaningfully apply sufficient might, and shoulder all the consequences, against the sheer size and power of China. The UK can and should make a stand, but it can ill afford the cost if China squeezes it on cancelling investment and limiting trade. The United Nations is useless as always when it comes to reining in a significant power. International cooperation and tight togetherness are vital, and in short supply particularly as the EU and the U.S. seem to be at loggerheads on various issues. If U.S. leadership concerning the CCP became more evident and more global rather than U.S. centric, then it may embolden other nations to join a solid united front to resist the CCP. Perhaps, a place to start will be for greater international recognition of Taiwan to show the CCP the world will no longer play ball with CCP insistence that Taiwan belongs to China.
Perhaps the coordination of international solidarity represents another area of opportunity for the UK to play a leadership role by bringing together its Commonwealth of nations with the U.S. and Europe and other free nations, and so strengthen the UK’s standing.
