Leaders with vision would honestly explain the reality of big picture issues confronting the UK, and indeed Europe and the world as a whole, with ideas to address them, but they have been brushed under the political carpet.
The long-awaited manifestos of the major parties have arrived. The lack of excitement in the air is palpable. The biggest concern the parties seem to have is to repeat endlessly that their policies, some of which are commendable if small beer compared to the big picture, are fully costed, fully funded for the duration of Parliament, the next 5 years. These claims are inherently highly dubious. Anybody who has worked in the business world knows that forecasting anything is fraught, and one year is perhaps manageable, but, even then, assumptions will likely prove wrong. The ability to deliver promises also depends on the work and commitment of people who may not always be willing followers.
To pretend forecasting can sensibly be done for 5 years is to mislead, and perhaps treat as fools, the British public. If the last 5 years have taught us anything it is that the world can change very quickly and dramatically. When making political party promises in 2019, the coming pandemic, global supply chain collapse, a potentially transformational war in Europe and an energy system turned on its head were not factored in. Those promises were in fact impossible for any party to fulfil as the facts emerged. And still both parties guarantee no rises in major taxes, tying hands to meet the unforeseeable, and making almost certain wealth tax impositions or rises such as for Capital Gains Tax.
Refreshingly Labour promise an end to “sticking plaster politics”. But that too will be an empty promise because of a failure of leaders to highlight and address harsh big picture realities, and manifestos will largely prove to be works of fiction, except at the minutiae level. An overriding impression is that media have decided it does not matter what the Conservatives promise, because the trust that they will deliver is gone. Labour can declare itself the saviour and chum of businesses and employees, the workers, and that it will transform the country, and the polls show them to have won already, and so the detail is academic. They leave that detail in many cases to be fleshed out after being elected: an unquantifiable risk of the unknown.
A few of the big picture items missing from the debates are addressed below.
ECONOMIC GROWTH : ATTITUDE AND MANAGEMENT
Economic growth is at the heart of the manifestos. And so it should be. And things like changes to planning laws to enable housebuilding and infrastructure construction, if implemented, will be beneficial to growth ultimately. If Labour brings some stability and follow through on their promises, that stability should benefit businesses: however stability is a function of how investors and businesses perceive things, and how people generally behave. Whoever is in power will have to be consistent and not chop and change, which was an unfortunate hallmark of recent Conservative Governments. But that consistency will not be easy if politicians are failing to address the underlying big problems. A Government can provide a framework conducive to growth, such as regulatory efficiency and tax incentives, but ultimately it is people, and their enterprises who create wealth and growth, through invention and hard work and good management.
It is good to hear that the politicians consider the UK to be a great nation, though how they square that with their constant and unhelpful cries that everything is broken is a mystery. What nobody says is that for a nation to succeed, its people have to want it to and their attitude and behaviour must reflect that. Is it possibly the case that the current “it’s all about me” and “entitlement” culture which is infecting much discussion and behaviour is damaging the country and, unless it is cured, progression will be difficult? This culture leads to work shyness rather than pride in hard work. It denies the idea of public and other service, so fundamental to a caring society. Cheating and evasion seem endemic in the system, when both Conservatives and Labour consider that HMRC can recoup £5-6 billion from stopping tax avoidance and evasion, which is likely to be only a fraction of the total being avoided. Nowhere is there an expectation that people should act in the national interest.
Most successful businesses are highly productive, with motivated workforces. That normally indicates good management. Is it perhaps the case that poor quality service and business performance is a function of the workers either not being competent (often poor training) or demotivated and not caring (poor standards), and that these features indicate poor management, both in public services and the private sector? Of course, there are pockets of excellence, and these should be models to follow. But, for example, throughout the civil service and public services there seems so little management accountability and absolutely no penalties for poor performance. Now the buzzwords are all about “change”, and maybe, if the UK is to succeed, the biggest changes needed are to self-centred and unambitious attitudes, and cultures, and poor management.
But there is no real discussion of these changes.
In Covid the mistake was made to spend every penny to save all livelihoods and save lives (of very old people) so that there was no contingency reserve for any future catastrophe, and lo and behold not just one but two catastrophes arrived immediately. The main parties seem to be doing the same again, not providing for the rainy days which are almost certain during the next five years.
DEMOGRAPHICS AND IMMIGRATION
Western European countries are producing too few children, and there is also growing infertility. People are living longer. These two facts alone mean the combination of a diminishing workforce long-term and a growing aged population have the potential to bankrupt nations. These subjects are not being addressed but money is being chucked at the problem for the short term to win votes. Do not adults need to be encouraged to reproduce and policies should reflect that? Should two parent families where both parents can contribute be encouraged? Or are we relying on AI and robotics to fulfil basic worker requirements? Who knows as there is silence?
Immigration is a major topic of concern according to polls, with net immigration at a high. The problems of underproduction of children and immigration perhaps are connected. If immigration is to come down, the British population has to take on jobs they to date have not wanted or, in the case of more skilled work, they seem incapable of doing – is that down to lack of training being offered or lack of willingness to get trained? There are statements of hard action or good intention in the manifestos but are they credible to solve the problem? Nowhere are the leaders setting out the overarching reality.
The reality of Africa is that in this Continent there are more and more young people, and good birth rates. But there is little wealth, few jobs, little opportunity, and a lot of poverty, and so little hope. The land is getting hotter and drier, as climate change takes its toll. Everybody knows the people will be heading North in droves, the tide of migration inevitably to grow not reduce. Continental Europe is being swamped. The UK has its illegal migration problem, but its small in comparison. But people will continue to come as they see more hope in the North than in their own countries, which mostly are beset by corruption and so people are kept down and poor. Has any strategy to counter that underlying reality been addressed? There is no discussion.
And immigration is fuelling far right tendencies across Europe, and to some degree in the UK. The extreme right can foment blame of migrants for crime, poor public services and lack of housing, for example, whether or not true, as a section of population likes to believe that, blaming foreigners. Racist tensions could easily erupt into violence. If the far right leanings grow too powerful, all basic freedoms will be at risk. Some twenty European countries are looking at Rwanda type short term fixes to deter illegal foreigners but, if deterred, they will go somewhere else in the North! The UK has more chance of containing migration than Continental Europe, but nobody should pretend the problem is easy to solve.
HEALTHCARE
The NHS religion is turning the UK into a health service with a nation attached, a bit like some great companies which had to spend their profits on their enormous pension schemes. The manifestos all tout saving the NHS, and Labour refreshingly suggest the NHS must improve in many ways. To save the NHS, and even for it to just stand still, means more and more money, even if for example it stops committing gross recklessness and admits it needs to embrace not punish whistleblowers and critics. And still, it will get worse.
No politician has the courage to put on the table a debate which contemplates putting it on a sound financial footing, involving a combination of insurance and the private and public sector, while ensuring free care for the most vulnerable, except Nigel Farage for Reform and this may be his one redeeming feature, but the point is lost in all the noise.
Nearly all developed countries have a combined system using private insurance with the public purse, and their clinical outcomes are often better. In the UK is it sensible to maintain a system which pays doctors a fraction of what they can earn in other countries? And it seems the big picture comments above concerning motivation and management are epitomised by an NHS which wallows in misplaced adulation and also self-pity: cold and gritty, honest assessment is the first step.
As focus on preventive medicine, and that includes serious measures to help change the British diet which makes people ill, is a necessary feature of affordable healthcare, but, without that, things are unlikely to improve. Is the food and retail lobby too powerful that the political parties are frightened to declare war on unhealthy food. So, the real health measures to make healthcare affordable and effective are not addressed in the manifestos.
CONFLICT AND FREEDOMS
The manifestos declare the intent to make the nation safe. But just spending a bit more money on defence will not do it, though they say it will. The massive threat posed by Putin, China and other autocratic countries which ally with them cannot be overstated, as they already cyberattack at will national and institutional infrastructure and spread disinformation to produce corrupt behaviour. Yet they are being totally understated. These threats go to the heart of democracy in the UK and Europe, and preserving freedoms should be the first priority. Is it? It seems not.
AND FINALLY THE MEDIA
The media circus continues to drive mood. Interviews by NIck Robinson of Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer illustrate the news broadcasters’ self-importance. In patronising and sometimes insulting manner, he spent the crucial start of the Rishi Sunak interview rubbing in the D-Day mistake, ignoring the apology. He spelt out what he saw as the Tory incompetence and listed the Tory promises slapping each announcement on the table. He did not want to hear Rishi Sunak’s responses. He just wanted to deliver his reprimands. His listening powers appeared to be suspended as he reloaded his bile while the Prime Minister spoke. Maybe that is what people want but that is doubtful. And to cap it all, a BBC news crony then interviewed Nick Robinson asking him to dissect his own interview, give his own view of Rishi Sunak’s performance and so of his own perfornance! So he could repeat his views, embellish his own prejudices and mark his own homework. Only the BBC perhaps cannot see that such behaviour is not the hallmark of objectivity!
Then there was Keir Starmer. Same approach but of course there is no history of government which can be pinned on him. The line was to suggest that nobody can know what Keir Starmer stands for as the manifesto he supported at the last election and his own manifesto to become leader of the Labour party are polar opposites to the current Labour manifesto. It was relatively tame: and notably there was no subsequent rerun with Nick Robinson alone marking his own performance!
Meanwhile SKY’s Beth Rigby interviewed both leaders. Different style but same as Nick Robinson in approach. More about D-day and so on. And at the end, her news cronies marked her as wonderful, appropriately humiliating of Rishi Sunak and making Keir Starmer squirm a bit. Gushing congratulations all round for selves and SKY. Oh dear!
And Kay Burley on SKY interviewed Grant Shapps. On and on about D-day. And reprimanding the Conservatives for launching the manifesto at such a ridiculous venue as Silverstone. And SKY portray her as their sharpest political interviewer, for whom talking about “squeaky bum” moments is a measure of her seriousness. The big picture was relegated to third place. These news journalists have an air of self-righteousness as if they can judge while they themselves are perfect. The media hypocrisy is alive and well and trying to lead a British public by the nose in this election. But for them the news and politics programmes are their ”shows” with them as the stars.
Vision and big picture confrontation should be the national craving but are sadly lacking in the political scene, broadcasting and much of the journalistic media. The brushing under the carpet needs to stop.
See also Sherbhert articles: Kingmaking, Spin and Lies – Election about Vision, Graft and Grit not Gaffs – Keeping an Eye on the Obesity Wrecking Ball.
