TARGETS
Taking the public for fools seems to have become a given tool of politics. Governments churn out policies and plans, with the buzz word “target” attached to them, thinking this is what the public desire. But these targets and policies have to be credible and deliverable, or else they are false dreams. As of today, are some of the targets and plans being promoted by today’s Government really credible and deliverable? If not, then the taxpayers are likely to be suffering yet again in pursuit of a pipedream.
On energy, the net zero target by 2030, or even 2035, has been proclaimed by experts to be at best highly improbable and in reality likely to be impossible to reach. And the manufacture of non- electric cars will have to extend far beyond 2030, contrary to earlier suggestions. Building the target 1.5 million new homes by 2029, that is 300,000 a year, is proclaimed by the housebuilding industry to be impossible, even if planning problems can be sorted soon. Targets to reduce waiting time in hospitals for basic operations may be achievable if all necessary resources are directed there, but at what cost to other healthcare necessities, including the overall plan by 2029 to build an NHS fit for the future. While, sensibly, no target has been set, there is an overriding commitment of Government to reduce immigration in a big way, and it is immigration which affects deliverability of all targets.
SOME PRACTICAL INFORMATION
To meet any target requires the availability of people with the right skills in the right places to do the work. An overview statistic today is that, according to David Smith in the Times, there are 3.4 million people of working age available and ready to work (with some 6 million sadly unavailable but that is the worklessness topic). And there are about 800,000 advertised vacancies, not being filled. The reasonable conclusion perhaps is that there are 3.4 million people in the wrong locations to take these jobs or 3.4 million people whose skills do not match those needed in the jobs available, or most likely a mix of the two. Is there any plan which has been publicised to solve the mismatch?
Then as to skills, official statistics indicate that 16-20% of adults are unable to read properly, that is 6-8 million people; and a similar number or more adults have the maths skills of a primary school child. Recent years have seen education policies implemented which mean the UK has improved dramatically, or rather England has, in terms of reading and maths education so that it is fourth internationally in reading. So maybe long-term things will improve as long as such gains are not frittered away by education change. However, for now there seem to be a considerable proportion of the population without basic skills simply to live.
There are so many occupations requiring great skill where workers are in very short supply. For houses and infrastructure building, among others including engineers, the Construction Industry estimates a need for 251,500 more construction workers by 2028 to meet expected work levels. As to engineers, which covers a range of industries from bridges to electrics to heating etc, Stonehaven, strategic consultants, estimate 1million more are needed by 2030. There are about 560,000 now and about 35-40,000 getting engineering degrees each year (a quarter being foreign students) but there are also engineers without degrees. Then, taking plumbers, the UK Trade Skills Index indicates another 70,000 are needed by 2032, and the average age of plumbers today is 50: plumbing is not popular with the young. Skills England, a new quango announced by the government in July, is charged with skills development but so far is barely active.
Numerous sectors face severe skill shortages such as in green skills and digital skills. But taking healthcare (leaving aside serious shortfalls in social care), there are 47,000 nursing vacancies in NHS England alone. When it comes to doctors, the UK needs 50,000 more doctors to reach a ratio of doctors to population equal to the average for OECD EU. Each year there are about 9,500 new student doctor places available, and each year roughly 3,000 retire. The shortfalls and the plans seem to mismatch.
SO WHAT?
A much deeper dive is required into proposed infrastructure projects, industry and regional labour requirements and all related factors to draw educated and detailed conclusions. It would be surprising if each sector and Government has not done that. However, the volumes of people unable to fill vacancies, or unable to read and write or do maths, and shortfalls compared to numbers of people being equipped with skills to meet needs outlined in this rough and ready way leads to serious questions perhaps. Are the targets proposed, however desirable, credible and deliverable? In addition, it seems inevitable that immigrants, with focussed skills to meet need, in considerable numbers are a necessity perhaps to make any sort of dent in possible shortfalls. So, it is counter productive and wrong to denigrate immigration, but it will be grown up to identify realistic target numbers sector by sector which will benefit the UK towards meeting desirable ends.
Added to that, the serious financial state of many universities in the UK and the evident fact that so many students emerge with degrees in skills not really needed is very concerning. And given the huge demands for scientific, digital, technological and engineering and trade skills which are known to be needed, serious questions must be asked about changing the highest end education framework. Should we urgently close a number of low performing Universities, terminate less useful degree courses, and establish far more trade and industry specialist training centres? There are so many questions that can be asked.
The biggest one is: are impressive sounding targets for Government attainment realistic? If not, then they need to be changed or else the UK is going down unachievable paths which will cost a lot more misdirected time and money.
