Is perhaps the only certainty emerging from the mess, which is Afghanistan, that Western leaders, experts, media and so the public understand so little about the workings, culture, aspirations and realities of life in the so many different countries which make up the the Islamic world? And that leads to error after error after error.
THE TALIBAN
In its period of rule over Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban imposed an Islamic fundamentalist governance on the Afghan people, known for its barbaric violence, often labelled medieval, and for its total destruction of the economy and what may be considered normal human enjoyments. They created a haven for terrorist Islamic extremists. Have they changed? The West may have left them alone but for the despicable murders of thousands in the USA in the attacks by Al Quaeda on 9.11 (11 September 2001). The objectives of the USA led “invasion” in October 2001 was to dethrone the Taliban and prevent Afghanistan being used as a terrorist base, and of course nobody had an inkling how the future would emerge were the Americans and allies (Coalition) successful. The Taliban were removed from Government but continued to operate primarily in the countryside and retained control of perhaps 10-20% of the country. They were never defeated, merely moved. Now in August 2021 they are back in power over almost the totality of Afghanistan it seems, with the USA withdrawing its troops, and its allies necessarily following that lead. The first lesson that haunts Europe and NATO is that they cannot operate in a serious conflict without the USA. It is puzzling that numerous commentators alight on this fact as if surprised: total dependence on the USA for dealing with any major military challenge has been obvious for years, exacerbated by the reluctance of Europeans to commit financial resources to defence.
Arguably the objectives of the invasion were substantially achieved at least for a few years. Inevitably, as leaving could not occur unless the nation could stand on its own two feet to resist the Taliban, the “invaders” sought to influence and establish a rule which was sympathetic to themselves, investing huge resources but seemingly creating total dependency – if this was nation- building, was it inept? Some say that parts of the country were transformed, such as Kabul now a huge City with some thriving young businesses, and girls and women enjoying education and work, previously denied them. Universities are open. Cars are on the streets. Entertainments, such as music, are normal. Any positive changes that were made now risk dismantlement and replacement by austere misery, the Taliban stock in-trade. Politicians and commentators, depending on their political purpose, now talk of the humiliation of the USA and the UK and other allies, their betrayal and abandonment of the Afghan people, and total strategic and tactical incompetence displayed by Western politicians and perhaps military leaders and advisers.
Multiple errors have surely been made. Is the biggest mistake the one repeated time and time again by the West, with its view of its own moral supremacy, and its so-called progressive and liberal programmes to improve the world: that it knows what is best, including what governance, for nations of which Western leaders and their advisers have in fact very little understanding and mistakenly believes it can predict their behaviour?
REALITIES ARE DISTURBING
The USA clearly must have thought the Taliban were seriously weakened and bound to negotiate. The truth is they were never defeated: they withdrew tactically, fighting in the countryside, causing terror by bombing in cities; presumably waiting for the moment, knowing that history showed the West would one day withdraw, because that is what the West always does when it seeks to interfere by invasion, but is not seeking to take over permanently. Domestic pressure in Western countries guarantees that. Iraq, Syria, Vietnam, Somalia, Libya and other incursions evidence the point. Successive Presidents of the USA have had to emphasise the temporary nature of their stay, and so that of the whole Coalition. It is doubtful they were ever welcome among the general populace as occupiers, but can one safely assume their deposing the Taliban was welcomed by many in 2001? The Coalition clearly intended to help Afghans stand on their own feet against the Taliban. But is it ever possible to get Afghans to unite as a nation in a common cause, as it seems to comprise a congregation of tribes and local leaders, even warlords, with their own agendas? The cities seem very different from the provinces, and in some parts is it perhaps the case the Taliban are in fact welcome? Commentators are unanimous that corruption is a way of life. Was the government eventually led by Ashraf Ghani ever acceptable to a majority of Afghans? That seems doubtful. Classic Western democratic politics were perhaps unlikely to be understood or appropriate. Were Western experts blind to the realities?
The Coalition, or at least the USA, may have thought in April 2021, when President Biden set the schedule to withdraw, that the Afghan army had the capability to at least create sufficient resistance to force the Taliban to compromise, following a massive training programme, and provision of modern equipment, including an air force. If they did not think that, they must have appreciated the Coalition’s departure would leave the country at the Taliban’s mercy. The Afghan army was presented as outnumbering the Taliban several times over. The numbers may have been fiction. It seems that they had however no commitment to fight, effectively either laying down arms, bargaining a surrender or just walking away. Yet General Petraeus, previous U.S. commander in Afghanistan, interviewed on the BBC had praise for their previous courage and competence, as have ex UK army officers. What happened to destroy the military motivation? Was it poor leadership or corruption or had they never been capable without Coalition professionals to support them? In the Guardian of 14 August, Bill Rozzio of the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies, reportedly said that the army had been plagued by corruption and mismanagement, was poorly equipped and had little motivation. For example, it is suggested that Generals exaggerated the numbers under their command so they could pocket the salaries of non-existent soldiers. In addition, the Afghan military strategy of letting the Taliban run riot in the countryside while protecting cities was fundamentally flawed. Who knows where the truth lies? It is clear however that any assessment that the army and the politicians could and would resist was so widely off the mark. Either there was a cover up, or gross misunderstanding of the realities. Even if Western troops had stayed for a few more years would the systemic weaknesses have changed?
THE TALIBAN DICTATED EVENTS AND NOW THE WORLD AWAITS THE NEMESIS
The commitment of the Trump presidency to withdrawal was cemented by Joe Biden. It can only be misunderstanding of the entire situation which led to a fixed date for U.S. forces to leave, and so inevitably the rest of the Coalition to follow, without first negotiating the truce and future structure of the Afghan government. All leverage removed, all the Taliban needed to do was wait, prevaricate, and prepare to take over. Were the West naïve or stupid or dishonest? Then, through June and July, and finally August, before the eyes of the World, the regions and finally the cities of the country fell to the Taliban. Yet negotiations continued in Qatar? Stories of Taliban atrocities have been legion, but the warning bells seem to have gone unheard. The scenes of the scramble to evacuate by Western countries in the days leading up to the fall of Kabul on 14 August and since then surely tell a story of complete miscomprehension of what was happening and why. There will be so many questions, but the most obvious is why an orderly departure of foreign nationals and Afghans at risk was not planned out and scheduled and implemented long before the known withdrawal date. The failure by the countries of the Coalition to commit early on to provide a home for those Afghan interpreters and others who helped the Coalition and who wished to leave is surely at least a moral dereliction with perhaps fatal consequences for those left behind. While the scenes are humiliating, is not the most worrying aspect the ineptitude of Western experts and politicians to risk manage the situation?
Joe Biden lays the blame for the lack of resistance against the Taliban at the feet of the Afghans themselves. There may be truth there, but the failure of the Western military on the ground to secure orderly safe passage for those who needed to leave cannot be denied, and the knives of blame are already out.
The world is at the mercy of the Taliban. Afghan fear of their violence and retribution and destruction of the current way of life has already led to mass flight. A humanitarian crisis is anticipated. Will the country again fall back into the dark ages? Have the Taliban acquired the skills to administer a country which they patently lacked in the 1990s? Why would they have? Will they ban the education of girls and women, and will women lose such rights as they had gained? Will marriage be forced on them? Will they be stoned for their sins? The Taliban say they have changed and want acceptance by the international community. But when asked about barbaric punishments one answer was “Stonings and amputations are matters for the courts”. The response about attitude to females is their rights will be respected “within the framework of Sharia law”: their past interpretation of Sharia law, if still current, bodes ill.
Will Afghanistan once more become a safe haven and breeding ground for terrorists, especially extreme Islamists, Jihadists, who share a Taliban view of the world, and for whom death to the West is a mantra? Maybe it is ominous that thousands of terrorists have been freed by the Taliban from prison already. Some from Al-Qaeda. Is it likely they will want revenge both against Afghans and the Western invaders? At the moment there is little credibility being given to the public statements by the Taliban that they have changed. The evidence of the stories of terror from the provinces, if true, justify scepticism. They promise an amnesty for all Afghans who may have supported the old Government. Their actions will prove their sincerity, or lack of it. Even if the Taliban leaders in Kabul want that result, is it reality that they can control the Taliban on the ground around the widespread parts of this vast country? Meanwhile those who would destroy Western values line up to befriend the new owners, such as China, Russia and Iran who will perhaps gain a new ally, and proxies to continue their attempts to undermine the Western democracies. Significantly too, China may continue its acquisition of vital mineral resources worldwide to the detriment of the West, Afghanistan being rich in, for example, copper and lithium, of such importance to the manufacture of batteries. Will the West be flooded in heroin from the poppy fields of Afghanistan, even more than is the case today despite Taliban vows to destroy the poppies?
The Western media and commentators lament the humiliation and disgrace of the military running away in panic and distress, and the standing of the Coalition in the World. More important, can a bloodbath and human tragedy of immense proportions, a real possibility, be avoided? Unless the Taliban abandon their creed, and why would they, the Afghan region, as other autocrats seize the opportunity of demonstrable Western frailty, could bring an instability and new era of terrorist violence to the wider world. Perhaps, before the West can muster its defences, it needs to learn and admit what it fundamentally does not understand about other peoples, especially the Islamic world, and cease meddling ineptly and without a united plan. The West must prove to the nations of the rest of the world that it has more to offer than the immoral dictators who would buy their support.
